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fxus63 kmpx 111818 aab 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1218 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 341 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Weakly cyclonic flow will draw stratus clouds over northern
Minnesota into the area today. Associated scattered flurries will
be possible, and still can't rule out lake effect snow on Mille
Lacs as colder air in the northwest flow regime passes over the
warmer (unfrozen) lake water. Confidence on this isn't high, but
given the pattern is favorable for it and cams still hint at it,
will leave high probability of precipitation in and monitor web cam/obs trends this
morning. Elsewhere, periodic cloudiness is expected due to the
ragged nature of the deck. Scattered flurries will likely
accompany the low clouds as well.

Record cold high temperatures are looking imminent today, with
readings in the teens common. Clearing skies tonight look to yield
lows from zero to 5 above over most of the area, with the
exception of south central Minnesota where lows look to dip into
the single digits below zero. Have leaned toward the colder side
of numerical guidance given snow cover there.

Return flow develops on Tuesday ahead of the next system.
Temperatures will respond accordingly by moderating into the upper
teens to upper 20s for highs.

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 341 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

The deep trough and Arctic high pressure depart to the east on
Wednesday, with temperatures taking on a warming trend as
southerly flow develops on the back side of the high and ahead of
an approaching clipper. Models are in fair agreement with a
shortwave digging from the northern plains into the mid-
Mississippi Valley, with the best forcing aloft passing south of
the County Warning Area. There won't be much moisture to work with given the dry
antecedent airmass, but there looks to be enough to support a few
tenths of an inch of snow across much of the cwa, with higher
amounts near an inch across west-central Wisconsin. Despite the
light amounts, there could be some minor disruptions to the
Wednesday evening commute with the best chances for precipitation
expected Wednesday afternoon- evening.

Temperatures continue a warming trend Thursday through the weekend,
as ridging builds into the central US. Dry conditions are expected
through the first half of the weekend as another round of Canadian
high pressure influences the region. This cool airmass will put a
damper on how much temperatures will be able to warm, with
temperatures approaching more seasonable values by Saturday but
still remaining a few degrees below normal. The next shot for
precipitation looks to come in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe
as a cold front passes through the region. Looking ahead into next
week, ensemble guidance shows a trend towards more seasonable
temperatures, with no signals towards any major cold or warm spells
noted.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Broken clouds around 4kft will continue through the rest of the
day with scattered flurries. Clouds will clear after sunset. Gusty
northwest winds will ease tonight before shifting southerly
Tuesday.

Kmsp...no additional concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Wednesday...VFR with MVFR/shsn possible. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Thursday...VFR. Wind west-northwest 5-10 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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