Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kmpx 142130 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
330 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Generally speaking high pressure will remain across the upper
Midwest which means dry conditions through Friday night. There
will be a weak cold front sagging southward, and this could lead
to some stratus that gets hung up in the weak flow and lingers
throughout the day. This could make Friday more cloudy for some
than the current forecast indicates.

On Friday night high pressure will drift eastward and a low
pressure system will track across Canada. This will bring
southerly winds near 20 mph.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

By Saturday evening a weak shortwave trough will shift eastward.
There should be enough lift and saturation to produce some light
quantitative precipitation forecast. Looks like more of a light precipitation event, so have
either a snow or drizzle mention in the weather grids. Surface
temps may be cool enough that there is a chance of freezing
drizzle.

Did increase pops a bit above the guidance, but these are likely
too low. The gefs has 80 to 90% chance of a hundredth of
precipitation, and the only reason it is not 100 is due to timing
issues. Confidence is fairly high that precipitation chances will
increase in the coming days, since there is a low probability that
any locations will remain dry. Beyond Sunday, continued with
blended guidance.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1205 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

VFR conditions this afternoon, with low clouds and MVFR conditions
developing tonight and lasting through Friday morning. Confidence
is fairly low in the timing and extent of these low clouds due to
the light and variable winds.

Kmsp...

VFR conditions this afternoon, with low clouds and MVFR conditions
developing tonight and lasting through Friday mid-morning before
VFR returns for Friday afternoon. Confidence is fairly low in the
timing and extent of these low clouds due to the light and
variable winds.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Sat...MVFR ceilings with -rasn possible late. Wind S 10-20 kts.
Sun...VFR with MVFR ceilings possible. Wind northwest 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR with MVFR ceilings possible. Wind west 5-10 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations