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fxus63 kmpx 162050 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
350 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Clouds are beginning to erode across southwestern Minnesota from the
west, a trend expected to continue through the night. By Thursday
morning, most of the area will be clear. Lows tonight should drop
into the low to mid 30s just about everywhere, with maybe a couple
degrees warmer in WI if the clouds hang on a bit longer than
expected.

Southeast winds will increase Thursday as the surface ridge slides
east. Building heights and plenty of sun will bring temperatures
back into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Winds will shift more southerly ahead of an approaching cold
front Friday, bringing even warmer air northward. In addition,
deep mixing and a thermal ridge sliding overhead will allow temps
to reach the mid to upper 60s. Like the last several shifts, used
the 90th percentile for highs to boost them up at least a few
degrees.

Moisture return will be slow due to the source region being mostly
from the surface high to the east and a tropical disturbance in
the Gulf keeping flow more northerly on the Gulf Coast. Sufficient
amounts of moisture should not reach the upper Midwest before the
cold front passes through Minnesota Friday night. Rain will be
most likely over eastern and southern Wisconsin. Pops were reduced
from previous forecasts.

A deep trough will develop over The Rockies again this weekend,
likely spawning another deep low pressure system in the plains.
The system will then track northeast across the upper Midwest by
Sunday night and Monday. Rain will be most likely during these
periods, but model variability continues to run high and
significant spatial and temporal differences in the track and quantitative precipitation forecast
fields have caused pops to remain in the chance to low likely category
across the region. Confidence remains very high, however, that a
round of rain will impact US at some point Sunday night into
Monday and pops will be increased when model variability
decreases. Depending on the evolution of the system, high winds
will be possible early next week as the low departs.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1155 am CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Mainly MVFR cigs expected to lift to VFR most areas through about
00z Thu. Drier air mixing into the eastern County Warning Area should lift sooner
than the far west. Some isold shra possible clipping a portion of
wc WI this afternoon. Will leave out of taf sties because of
expected coverage. Otherwise mix of mid.High level clouds into at
least the first half of the night, clearing to the west before
06z and thereafter into western WI. Light northwest winds becoming light
S and southeast into Thursday.

Kmsp...
expect MVFR trend developing to VFR through the afternoon. Then
mix of mainly high/mid level clouds overnight clearing into Thu
morning.

/Outlook for kmsp/

Thu night...VFR. Wind southeast 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind south-southeast at 20g30 kts, bcmg west at 10-15 kts late.
Sat...VFR. Rain showers possible late. Wind west 5-10 kts.



&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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