Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kmpx 120432
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1032 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 338 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
It is very cold. Temperatures this afternoon range from the
single digits to mid teens, or about 30 degrees below normal.
Scattered flurries and snow showers are ongoing this afternoon
across the region. The dry air in the lower levels has led to a
lot of virga, but when the snow does reach the ground it can be
briefly intense. As the sun sets, diurnal instability will
diminish quickly and the clouds will clear. The surface ridge axis
stemming from a 1040+ mb high sinking south into the Southern
Plains will move across overnight and Tuesday morning. Winds
should diminish, but not much guidance is indicating they will
decouple, so low temperatures tonight are a bit uncertain. Given
the low dew points and an already very cold start, sided toward
the colder side of the envelope, but if winds decouple there could
be some areas that get several degrees colder still - especially
across southern Minnesota where there remains a decent snowpack.
Winds will shift southerly Tuesday, but decent warm air advection
will wait until Tuesday night to reach the area with the flow
initially coming from the high. Clouds will increase again
throughout the day and temperatures should be stuck in the upper
teens to mid 20s, coldest east and warmest west. Temps will remain
steady Tuesday evening and then rise overnight as warm air advection strengthens.
This may also help develop some light snow across central Minnesota
during the overnight.
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 338 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
A broad shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast from
Canada into the central US by Wednesday. Lift from this trough
will keep our region socked in with clouds throughout most of the
day. Some breaks in the clouds could occur towards the evening
hours on Wednesday. While moisture is meager with this system (as
is usually the case with Alberta clippers), most models show
saturated temperature profiles favorable for snow for at least the
morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. A dusting is
likely for most of Minnesota but upwards of an inch is possible
across western Wisconsin.
After the shortwave trough moves out of region Wednesday night, our
County Warning Area looks to stay dry until the end of the week. While the cwa's
lows for Thursday morning will be in the mid-teens, a gradual
warming trend is forecast over the next few days. By Saturday, highs
around 40 are possible, especially in western Minnesota. Our next
chance of precipitation arrives later on Saturday with the passage
of a cold front. However, uncertainty between models and runs is
currently too great to completely determine precipitation type and
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
Just about the entire region is cloud free, except for a few
small bands that are remnant from the lake effect, and those
should be gone in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, a high
pressure ridge will move across Minnesota and western WI late tonight
through midday Tuesday, with winds shifting to the south and
increasing. There should be gusts over 20 knots in much of Minnesota
beginning tomorrow afternoon. Also, high clouds will begin
spreading over the area Tuesday.
Kmsp...no other concerns.
/Outlook for kmsp/
Wednesday...MVFR and shsn likely. Wind S 5-10 kts bcmg west 5-10 kts.
Thursday...VFR. Wind west-northwest 5-10 kts.
Friday...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.