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fxus63 kmpx 150455 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1055 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

issued at 1044 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.


Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Generally speaking high pressure will remain across the upper
Midwest which means dry conditions through Friday night. There
will be a weak cold front sagging southward, and this could lead
to some stratus that gets hung up in the weak flow and lingers
throughout the day. This could make Friday more cloudy for some
than the current forecast indicates.

On Friday night high pressure will drift eastward and a low
pressure system will track across Canada. This will bring
southerly winds near 20 mph.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

By Saturday evening a weak shortwave trough will shift eastward.
There should be enough lift and saturation to produce some light
quantitative precipitation forecast. Looks like more of a light precipitation event, so have
either a snow or drizzle mention in the weather grids. Surface
temps may be cool enough that there is a chance of freezing

Did increase pops a bit above the guidance, but these are likely
too low. The gefs has 80 to 90% chance of a hundredth of
precipitation, and the only reason it is not 100 is due to timing
issues. Confidence is fairly high that precipitation chances will
increase in the coming days, since there is a low probability that
any locations will remain dry. Beyond Sunday, continued with
blended guidance.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1044 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

MVFR conditions to develop over much of the area, just a matter of
how much can be realized at the terminals since it will be a bit
splotchy. Confidence fairly high on MVFR ceilings so have
maintained that thinking through the overnight hours with
conditions improving to VFR late morning into the afternoon.

Kmsp...MVFR conditions likely thru the morning push, including the
potential for ceilings under 1700ft. Once into midday, ceilings
will return to VFR levels but still stay in the 4-5 kft range. An
additional round of MVFR ceilings possible late tonight into
Saturday morning.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Sat...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc -rasn late. Wind S 10-20 kts.
Sun...mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind northwest 5-10 kts.
Mon...mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind west 5-10 kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


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