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afdoax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
632 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

..updated aviation forecast discussion...

Discussion...
issued at 312 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Generally quiet weather is expected through the duration of the
forecast in the wake of the strong low pressure which brought strong
winds to the area Monday and Tuesday. Expect a weak shortwave to
pulse through the northeast County Warning Area this morning. It will bring some
brief chances of showers in the northeast and perhaps a few
sprinkles to the rest of the area. This will be short lived
though with dry conditions returning by noon Wednesday.

As this quick moving impulse moves east of the area Wednesday
afternoon, surface high pressure will begin to build back in.
Wednesday will also see some breezy conditions on the back side
of the exiting low pressure. But winds will be much weaker than
the past few days with gusts ranging from 15 to 30 mph.
Temperatures will be near average on Wednesday with highs mainly
in the lower 60s to upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be
slightly cooler from the upper 20s to the mid 30s.

The rest of the week will remain quiet with below average
temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday. Expect highs in the
upper 40s Thursday (10 to 15 degrees below average), and in the mid
50s on Friday. Thursday night will be another cold one, with lows
from 25 to 30 degrees across the entire area. Some improvement
expected Friday night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to 40
degrees.

Significant differences in the long range models over the
weekend. European model (ecmwf) and Canadian solutions develop a cut off low over
Texas/Oklahoma on Friday and pulls it northeast over the weekend.
These solutions could bring small chances of precip in the far
southeast but should keep the rest of the area dry. The GFS has
kept this system much more open and progressive with a dry
frontal passage. Have opted for a farther south solution, but have
included small pops in extreme southeast Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. Regardless of which model you choose, it is clear that
much colder air will arrive for the last week of October. After
the passage of the cold front on Sunday, expect highs in the mid
40s and lows in the mid 20s for Monday and Tuesday...brr!

Another reinforcing cold front will sweep through the area and
bring potential for rain and snow for Monday night into Tuesday.
With significant model differences, confidence is low for day 6
and beyond but this will be something to monitor in the coming
days.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 628 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the taf cycle with a wind
shift to the northwest this morning behind a cold front. Winds
could gust across the area to near 25kts at times.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

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