Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
625 am CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
..updated aviation forecast discussion...
issued at 338 am CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Today and tonight:
Scattered showers continue to quickly push northeast through the
forecast area this morning with dry conditions to follow for the
remainder of the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough pushes
east of the forecast area. A weak area of surface high pressure will
skirt the area today keeping surface winds fairly light. High
temperatures should top out in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday and monday:
return flow increases Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching
vigorous shortwave trough. Gusty southerly winds are expected
ahead of this system with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible by afternoon. These should spread east through the
evening as a cold front slides across the forecast area. Winds
will be the primary concern with this departing system into Monday
as the surface pressure gradient tightens around this intense
system. Some gusts could approach 40-50+ mph Monday afternoon
which would be well into advisory criteria.
Tuesday through friday:
mostly dry conditions are expected until late Wednesday into
Thursday as a mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface
front push east across the forecast area bringing a cooler airmass
into the area and a few rain showers. Some snow could mix into
the northern counties late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning as this cooler airmass slides south. Dry weather returns
to the forecast Friday.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 623 am CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
VFR conditions will prevail for the forecast period. Scatter cloud
cover should move out of the area by 17z leading to clear skies.
Winds will be light, initially from the northwest, and becoming
southerly by 00z.