Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 koax 120528
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
..updated for 06z aviation forecast discussion...
issued at 241 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Today through Thursday
A weak boundary slowly drifted north out of Kansas as a warm front
this afternoon, bringing southerly low level flow over the area.
High temperatures should manage to reach slightly higher than
yesterday, ranging from the low 20s over northeast Nebraska to close
to 40 degrees along the NE/Kansas border.
Dry weather will continue tonight, with low temperatures dipping
into the 20s across the forecast area. A weak cold front will drift
through the region Thursday as a shortwave moves through the
Dakotas. Dry weather is expected to prevail despite the frontal
passage, as better forcing and moisture remain well to our north.
Temperatures will climb slightly higher again Thursday afternoon,
reaching the upper 30s in northeast Nebraska and upper 40s near the
Friday through Saturday
Another couple of shortwaves will move into the Central Plains
Friday/Friday night, bringing a better chance for light precip.
Another frontal passage associated with these waves will pull chilly
Arctic air back into the region Friday afternoon, making for a
tricky temperature forecast. For now, anticipate highs will make it
into the 40s at most locations, with low 50s possible across far
southeast Nebraska. Expect rain will transition to a rain/snow mix
Friday, before becoming all snow as colder air filters into the
Light snow chances will continue Friday night and into Saturday
morning. Overnight/early morning lows will fall into the single
digits and teens. Cold air will remain over the region Saturday,
with highs only rebounding into the teens and 20s.
Sunday through Monday
The next shortwave trough will develop over the southern rockies
before moving east across the Southern Plains Sunday and Sunday
night. The GFS remains a bit farther north with this system,
bringing a decent chance of snow to the forecast area Sunday through
Sunday night. The ECMWF, however, remains further south, keeping the
heavier precip confined to Kansas. Either way, temperatures look to
remain below normal early next week. Lows will be in the single
digits and low teens Sunday and Monday mornings. Highs are only
expected to reach the 20s Sunday afternoon, maybe low 30s on Monday.
Tuesday through Wednesday
Dry conditions return as temperatures gradually moderate through the
middle of next week.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019
Expect that some MVFR ceilings will develop in the next several
hours ahead of the advancing wind shift. This could be for a few
hours, mainly between about 10z and 14z. There is also some hint
that MVFR ceilings could occur Thursday morning around kofk. Low
level wind shear is expected to occur at klnk and koma overnight,
with strong southwest winds aloft.