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fxus63 koax 180839 
afdoax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
339 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Discussion...
issued at 334 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Today and tonight:

A mid-level ridge axis extends from western Ontario toward the
Mississippi River valley and will continue to push east as short-
wave troughing moves across the northern rockies and toward the
Great Basin. At the surface, a front/Lee trough extending across the
High Plains will continue to move east toward the region today and
tonight. Ahead of this, gusty southerly winds within a tightening
surface pressure gradient will likely push winds into Wind
Advisory territory, especially this morning as some mixing down
of the 45-50kt low-level jet is likely to occur. The surface
front will push through much of the area by 00z tonight turning
winds to the northwest behind it. Ahead of the approaching western
short-wave trough, scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are possible near the front and some could linger
into early Saturday morning.

Saturday:
a weak area of surface high pressure will skirt the area with weak
upper-level ridging overhead. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
with light winds and dry conditions should combine to make a top-ten
fall day.

Sunday and monday:
return flow increases Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop by afternoon ahead of this upper trough and spread east
throughout the afternoon and evening as the surface front pushes
east. A few bands of convection are possible with steepening mid-
level lapse rates through the afternoon. The upper trough rapidly
closes off across central Iowa, deepens and moves northeast toward
Wisconsin. This will leave our area with a few showers behind the
departing system but the main issue will be strong northwest
winds. 850mb winds are forecast around 50-60kts through the day
Monday and with unidirectional northwesterly flow, good mixing
should occur.

Tuesday through thursday:
mostly dry conditions are expected until late Wednesday into
Thursday as a mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface
front push east across the forecast area bringing a colder airmass
into the area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain
out of the south tonight. An increasing low level jet will produce
low level wind shear at all sites until around 16z this morning.
Surface winds will become gusty again on Friday, and remain strong
through the afternoon hours. A cold front will move through Friday
evening, eventually bringing winds around to the northwest as
they gradually weaken.



&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for nez034-044-045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

Iowa...Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for iaz043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

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