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fxus63 koax 201133 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
633 am CDT sun Oct 20 2019

..updated aviation forecast discussion...

issued at 340 am CDT sun Oct 20 2019

Today and tonight:

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the region today as a
vigorous shortwave currently over central Wyoming deepens and
moves east along the neb/South Dakota border. Ahead of this, Lee-side
surface low pressure will continue to strengthen over the High
Plains region with increasing southerly flow ahead of it pushing
wind gusts in our area to 20-30kts at times. This morning, some
patchy fog is possible across our southern counties, and
especially southwest Iowa where dewpoint depressions are near
zero. More extensive dense fog exists across MO and eastern Kansas and
we will continue to monitor this morning for any northward
expansion but several models keep the lowest visibilities to our
south and east. Scattered showers are forecast to spread east
into the area this morning and afternoon however dry mid and lower
levels may limit much precipitation making it to the ground. By
afternoon, point forecast soundings begin to show increasing
moisture in these areas. A better chance of a narrow band of
showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, comes later this afternoon
in a north/south orientated band across far eastern Nebraska and
this quickly moves east into western Iowa early this evening. This
will be a better chance to see measurable precipitation but any
activity should be fairly short-lived as the associated dry slot
pushes into the area. The associated cold front with this system
will slide through the area overnight with some chances for
precipitation wrapping around into our northern counties. Gusty
winds will be the primary concern associated with this departing
system into Monday as the surface pressure gradient tightens
around this intense system. Some gusts could approach 40+ mph
Monday afternoon with strong mixing likely in unidirectional
northwesterly flow.

Remainder of the forecast:

Mostly dry conditions are expected until late Wednesday into
Thursday as a mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface
front push east across the forecast area bringing a cooler airmass
into the area and a few rain showers. Some snow could mix into the
northern counties late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning as this cooler airmass slides south but overall any
accumulating precipitation looks very light at this point. Dry
weather returns to the forecast Friday through the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 625 am CDT sun Oct 20 2019

VFR conditions should prevail for the forecast period. Surface
winds will increase this morning up to 20 kts gusting up to 30
kts from the south. There will be a period of low level wind
shear (llws) at kofk and klnk from 12-16z. There is a chance of
thunderstorms later today (22-01z) at kofk and klnk as a cold
front makes its way across the state.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...

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