Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 180800
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
200 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019
As we've been advertising for the last couple of nights, the first
of two clippers is upon US. Radar has been showing very weak
reflectivities basically along and north of I-40 and while there's
probably a few drops reaching the ground, our 00z soundings shows
extremely dry air below 700 mb. For most, temperatures are such that
if it did reach the ground, it'd be the liquid kind of precip.
However, on the plateau, a flurry could be mixed in. Neither a
sprinkle or a flurry will be of any significance. Additional cloud
cover and weak cold air advection should keep middle Tennessee a little cooler than
The second of these two clippers should push through middle Tennessee
around the same time tonight. In very similar fashion, I don't
expect much of anything to reach the ground, and while soundings
shouldn't be as dry, a sprinkle or two won't be of much significance.
The big story for this forecast continues to be a frontal system
that will push through the region in the Thu-Fri-Sat time frame.
Models are in a little better agreement that the bulk of the
rainfall should come late Thu night into Friday as the front moves
through the mid-state. A very tight gradient of pop is being
highlighted on the front end, with higher pops stretching from west
Tennessee into central Kentucky. This gradient could help our northwest counties see
some light rain during the day Thursday, but again, the bulk of
everything should be Thursday night into Friday.
There's still some model disagreement into Saturday as far as the
evolution of the upper pattern and its impact on middle TN, but with
temperatures remaining above freezing until well after the rain
exits, a little additional rainfall should have no impact. On the
whole, 1-2 inches will be possible from Thursday to Saturday. This
is a welcomed rain as we've been relatively dry in the last couple
of weeks, and it could be another 4-5 days before our next
Look for temperatures on the backside of the Thu-Sat system to keep
US below normal, but nothing too crazy-cold.
06z taf discussion.
Bna/mqy/ckv/csv...an upper trough will move across middle
Tennessee overnight, bringing mainly mid-level ceilings to the mid
state. Current radar does show a few faint echoes, and the hrrr
does bring some spotty light precipitation across the region
overnight, but it should be nothing of consequence. So we're going
with VFR taf's at the next issuance.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 53 40 58 37 62 / 10 20 10 0 0
Clarksville 52 39 57 36 61 / 10 20 10 0 0
Crossville 51 35 49 34 58 / 10 10 20 0 0
Columbia 54 39 59 36 63 / 10 10 10 0 0
Lawrenceburg 54 39 59 37 63 / 10 10 10 0 0
Waverly 53 40 58 37 63 / 10 10 10 0 0