Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 192353
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
553 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019
for 00z aviation discussion.
For most of middle Tennessee today, things turned out quite nicely
over the area as the sprinkles and clouds this morning cleared
giving way to some sun with temperatures climbing into the 50s
and even low to mid 60s this afternoon. Unfortunately, a quick
hitting cold front is on the front doorstep (currently crossing
the Tennessee river). You may notice a few wind gusts here and
there through this evening...but the winds should die down
overnight. A few sprinkles may be possible especially across the
far eastern Cumberland Plateau, but otherwise not much in the way
of moisture is expected.
Although we'll be behind the cold front...temperatures will still
be able to climb into the 50s on Wednesday with clearing skies.
However, the warmest day of the week will be Thursday as most
locations reach well into the 60s before the next system and rain
move into the area.
Thursday night-Saturday morning look to be the wettest out of the
next 7 days with a widespread 1-2.5 inches of rainfall expected.
With that said, don't expect any severe thunderstorms with this
system and in fact, think it may be tough for US to even get
thunderstorms thanks to the lack of instability Friday and Friday
night. Medium range models are in fairly good agreement that the
timing of this system exiting the area will be around mid day
Saturday allowing folks across middle Tennessee to salvage the
second half of their weekend! Sunday will be somewhat cooler with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with plenty of sunshine.
Monday through Wednesday will begin a warming trend for the area
as sunny skies allow temperatures to reach back into the 60s by
next Tuesday. But this will once again be short-lived as the next
system with rain moves into the region by mid-week next week
specifically around/on the busiest travel day of the year. So stay
tuned! Taking a far peak into the forecast models, the next
Wednesday system should be a quick one leaving Thanksgiving day
much cooler and dry.
00z taf discussion.
Bna/mqy/ckv/csv...winds are still a bit gusty as we head into the
evening, but look for a surface high to move over middle Tennessee
by morning, with winds diminishing overnight and remaining
relatively light tomorrow. Expect some MVFR ceilings to develop at
csv overnight and early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, it's VFR wx
thru the taf period.