Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 220226
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
826 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
for evening discussion.
Showers are having a difficult time materializing thus far, owing
primarily to a dry boundary layer. The 00z sounding from ohx shows
plenty of moisture above 850 mb, but some of that moisture is
going to have to work its way down to the surface before we can
sustain measurable precipitation. At this time, a cold front is
slowly approaching middle Tennessee from the NW, but hasn't quite
reached pah. This front will sag across the mid state tomorrow
and should exit the region by sunset. Radar imagery does show
echoes starting to develop over west Tennessee, and the hrrr
does bring more widespread activity across the Tennessee River
after midnight. In the meantime, look for only spotty showers the
remainder of the evening. Hourly forecast grids are holding up
reasonably well with only minor tinkering here and there. Will re-
issue the public forecast shortly just to update the wording. No
appreciable changes are planned for now.
00z taf discussion.
Ckv/bna/mqy/csv...several admendments possible thru 22/24z.
Vcsh terminals thru at least 22/04z. Heavy rain possible ckv
22/07z-22/12z. MDT rainfall possible all terminals 22/10z-22/18z.
Initial VFR/MVFR ceilings approaching 22/00z will fluctuate
between LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings by as early as 22/04z ckv.
Fluctuations between VFR/MVFR/IFR vsbys thru 22/24z possible.
Ahead of sfc frontal passage, S/SW sfc sustained winds 5-10 kts
expected to prevail. North sfc winds 5-10kts expected behind passage.