Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 230030
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
630 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019
for evening discussion.
Latest sfc analysis places a 1013 mb sfc low over nrn Louisiana
at this time. Meanwhile, a developing upper low over the Central
Plains is expected to continue deepening overnight. As pva
enhancement begins to catch up with the aforementioned sfc low,
look for that sfc low to begin to strengthen as it moves toward
southern middle Tennessee later tonight. As a result, look for low level
lift to increase which will cause the current ongoing shower
activity to increase in coverage. Models still hint toward some
added instability over our south and east so will continue with
the slight chance of thunder in the grids.
Otw, if there is going to be a change to the grids it will be with
our overnight low temps. However, latest sfc temp trends are
leaning toward leveling off and we still expected a slow increase
with our temps toward sunrise as the sfc low approaches.
So, no changes with the fcst for now. Timing and content of the
pops still look good to go.
00z taf discussion.
Sfc low will develop to our south overnight. This feature will
move across southern middle Tennessee as we move toward sunrise. Thus,
look for rain to overspread the area overnight. Some upper level
energy will swing in behind the departing sfc low. Therefore, look
for light shower activity and or some drizzle to persist through
the Sat morning hours and into the early afternoon.