Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kohx 131110
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
510 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019
for 12z aviation discussion.
Dry will be the story for the entire forecast. There will be a few
shots at some precip, but for the most part, dry conditions look
to win out. Cold temps this morning look to bottom out in the
single digits and teens, and will be the coldest night of the
forecast. Upper trough continues eastward, and northwest flow
aloft is replaced by zonal flow with weak shortwave ridging today
to allow US to reach the low to mid 40s. 850 mb temps go above
zero pretty quickly thanks to that zonal flow/weak ridging aloft
and the return of southerly flow in the low levels will aid in
reaching the 40s today. By Thursday, another trough in the plains
will dig south quickly, and become a closed low over the Gulf
states to our south Friday morning. Since the low is to our south,
and no moisture over the mid state, we should remain dry. The
upper low will move eastward then northeastward off the coast, so
the eastern zones may see a slight chance for rain, but its more
likely we will remain dry.
For Saturday, dry conditions will continue, and especially on
Sunday with ridging overhead. Temps will warm into the mid 50s
Sunday before another plains trough moves eastward on Monday.
Models do not show much moisture with this trough either, so kept
pops out of the forecast Monday and even on Tuesday when the
upstream jet digs the trough a bit further directly overhead of
the area. Most of the moisture is off to the east downstream of
the trough axis, which will be over the Atlantic states. Model
solutions vary quite a bit after Tuesday, but we may get a shot at
some precip late next week.
12z taf discussion.
Bna...mqy...ckv...csv...VFR conditions expected. A few high clouds
may be possible today otherwise winds becoming southerly around 5