Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 051106
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
506 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019
12z taf discussion.
VFR conditions to continue.
Mainly high/mid clouds today with light south winds increasing
some later this morning as they veer to the southwest. A system
will move across the area overnight with a chance for a few
showers to impact mainly okc/oun sites late evening. Otherwise
expect ceilings to lower along and north of I-40, but remain VFR.
A cold front will also move south through the area overnight with
gusty north winds developing behind the front.
Previous discussion... /issued 232 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019/
fairly mild weather punctuated by a few cold fronts (thursday and
monday) will prevail through the forecast period.
With southwest winds, Thursday will actually be quite warm for this
time of year, especially across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. A
shortwave and associated cold front will move through the area this
afternoon and evening, bringing spotty showers and cooler
temperatures. Dry low levels will be an inhibiting factor keeping
any rainfall scattered and light. Eastern parts of the state may see
the better chances for rain (as well as a chance for isolated
thunderstorms) due to better low level moisture flowing in.
Cooler weather will set in for Friday gradually warming back into
Sunday under the influence of some minor ridging.
The next wave moves in Monday. Models continue to waver on how this
system will evolve. The deterministic models had been dry, but the
latest European model (ecmwf) keeps the wave more open and generates precipitation
over southeast Oklahoma. Again, moisture looks to be the limiting
factor. Will continue with a blended forecast that incorporates
ensemble data. Models also indicate some decent mixing with this
frontal passage which could result in some breezy conditions
Model divergence only increases after Monday with some hint of
another system coming down late week next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 38 49 31 / 0 30 0 0
Hobart OK 69 36 51 30 / 0 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 72 42 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 62 31 49 29 / 0 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 64 35 47 29 / 0 10 0 0
Durant OK 69 47 58 36 / 0 0 0 0