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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Discussion...
00z taf discussion.

&&

Aviation...
a light southeast wind will gradually shift to the south late
tonight and increase by late morning with a few gusts to near
20kts by aftn. Otherwise, VFR conditions with some high clouds and
aftn cumulus Monday afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019/

Discussion...
weak upper ridging today going nearly zonal by Monday will maintain
dry and quiet conditions across our entire forecast area. At the
same time, an upper shortwave trough currently across western
Canada will begin to deepen across the northwestern United States
and move eastward, which will provide some cooler air coming in
Tuesday.

Meanwhile, increasing south winds will maintain a brief warming trend
through the entire Monday period. For mondays high temperature,
will go with the superblend and only a slightly warm up the
previous forecast. Mondays expected high temperatures in the lower
to mid 80s will still be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
climatologically normal for early autumn. Moisture advection will
be quite evident by late Monday as dew points rise to 60 degrees
at the Red River, and further increase into the upper 60s through
Tuesday morning into central Oklahoma. The warm air advection
enhanced by a marginally strong low level jet will introduce low
pops for showers and thunderstorms to develop across North Texas
and into southern and portions of central Oklahoma. As the
aforementioned trough closes to an upper low across the northern
U.S. Plains, a cold front will be pushing across the Central
Plains. The models are in general agreement with the cold front to
begin moving into northwest Oklahoma by sunrise Tuesday and into
southeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. The surface boundary could
provide more support for convection as it digs into central
Oklahoma although upper support at that time is expected to
weaken. With cape values around 1000 to 1500 j/kg and weak shear,
severe thunderstorms is not expected at this time. However, a few
strong storms may be possible across southern Oklahoma with
slightly more unstable and moister air in place there. Fire
weather will also increase to elevated conditions on Tuesday
behind the frontal boundary across the far western edge of our
forecast area.

By Wednesday, the effects of the cold front will be felt, with
drier air and about a 10 degree cooldown in temperatures. Weak
ridging will begin building aloft, maintaining dry conditions and
a gradual warmup and moisture return through Friday. A weak
longwave trough will begin moving in from our west, and a
reintroduction of convective pops into the forecast beginning
early Saturday morning. For now, will keep pops low across our
eastern County Warning Area in agreeance with the nbm and GFS solutions, generally
along and east of I-35. However, the European model (ecmwf) solution brings pops a
little further west across northern Oklahoma, so that may need to
be adjusted in time. Low pops will increase further west on day 7.
Another cold front will be passing through late Friday into
Saturday. However, both GFS and European model (ecmwf) thickness fields are in
agreeance with negligible cooler air associated with this passage,
so for now the front looks rather weak with just a north wind
shift behind it.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 51 81 62 76 / 0 0 20 30
Hobart OK 52 83 59 76 / 0 0 10 20
Wichita Falls Texas 55 86 64 84 / 0 10 20 30
gage OK 45 84 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 48 78 59 70 / 0 0 10 20
Durant OK 53 80 64 84 / 0 0 60 50

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.

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