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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
330 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Discussion...

Pacific based moisture at the mid to high levels originating from
a tropical disturbance off Baja California Mexico will continue
to maintain broken to overcast cloudiness across the southern two
thirds of our forecast area through this evening. Meanwhile at
our lower levels, southerly flow continues to surge moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico across the Southern Plains. The strongest
moisture advection is evident across southeast Oklahoma which has
a more southeasterly wind component. Current mesonet observations
already have dewpoints in the lower 60s across southeast Oklahoma.

A shortwave trough currently across the northern High Plains will
continue to dig and close off over the upper Midwest. Although
the surface low with this system will move into the Great Lakes
region, the trailing cold front will continue to push southward
and enter into far northwest Oklahoma around sunrise Tuesday.
However, a Lee low developing off the Colorado rockies is expected
move into our area just ahead of the frontal passage. With the
abundant moisture in place especially in our southeast, showers
and thunderstorms could develop as the forcing moves in. For now,
low pops remain in place tonight near the Red River and generally
east of I-44 in our area for tomorrow. Somewhat weak instability
will limit thunderstorms from becoming severe across most of our
area, except for southeast Oklahoma where the severe risk is
marginal.

By Wednesday, the mild air from the cold front will be felt, with
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than average for this
time. An upper ridge will begin to build in and a return of warmer
south winds for Thursday as temperatures become more seasonable.
Behind the ridge, a longer wave trough will begin to move in for
our next chance of storms for this weekend.

Saturday morning our next cold front will pass through, although
not much of any actual cold air behind it. With rather stable air
in place, low pops for -ra are possible along this boundary, and
keeping it along and east of I-35. Pops will slowing increase
further west on Sunday with thunderstorms possible as the
environment begins to destabilize more. A shortwave embedded in
the trough will begin digging into our area on Monday, pushing in
a stronger cold front, and further increasing more widespread
pops for thunderstorms and rain. Not much in really cold air behind mondays front,
although it will be rather windy.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 63 78 43 66 / 0 20 0 0
Hobart OK 61 77 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 65 85 48 71 / 20 10 0 0
gage OK 51 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 58 70 40 63 / 20 30 0 0
Durant OK 65 87 49 70 / 40 60 30 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.

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