Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 koun 221148 
afdoun

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
548 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Aviation...
tafs 2212/2312...
widely scattered rain showers will be possible through about
13-14z; otherwise, most of the precipitation will end. Areas of
rain will improve ceilings temporarily however, mainly IFR to
MVFR ceilings will prevail today with a northerly wind. Low clouds
should scattered this evening, but this may increase the risk of
fog as winds will become rather light.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 456 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019/

Discussion...

Waves of showers continue as the cold front has pushed through
the region. For central and southern parts of Oklahoma, slight
amounts of elevated instability is present, which has resulted in
some occasional lightning with these storms as well as the chance
for small hail. Further north, a cooling temperature profile has
caused areas of light sleet and snow in far northwestern Oklahoma.
This area of freezing precipitation is expected to expand south
as the colder air filters into the area. Little to no additional
sleet/snow accumulation is expected. With the expectation of
lingering cloud cover, temperatures are expected to remain fairly
cool, with highs ranging from the mid 30s in northwest Oklahoma,
to the mid 40s in southeast Oklahoma and western North Texas. As
the upper level cyclone continues to progress eastward,
precipitation chances will slowly diminish and exit eastward
throughout the day Friday.

Looking ahead, temperatures will recover quickly with normal
highs and lows expected Saturday and throughout the weekend. With
the exiting upper level cyclone, a more zonal flow and perhaps
some slight ridging will occur, that will keep things clear and
calm throughout the weekend and into early next week. Another
upper level cyclone embedded within a shortwave trough will move
through northern Kansas next Tuesday. While this will bring a cold
front through the region, a lack of moisture will inhibit any
precip chances for this frontal passage. Models indicate a surge
of Pacific moisture into the area for next Wednesday, which could
result in widespread precipitation chances Wednesday evening and
Thanksgiving.

Zwink

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 38 30 54 34 / 40 10 0 0
Hobart OK 37 29 56 31 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 42 33 57 34 / 30 10 0 0
gage OK 31 27 54 29 / 10 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 36 27 51 30 / 40 10 0 0
Durant OK 45 33 54 35 / 60 10 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations