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fxus64 koun 210454 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

the 06z aviation discussion follows....


the surface cold front at 05z was located northwest of kwwr, and
was moving southeast, more or less on schedule. Expect a band of
low ceilings along and just behind the front overnight, along with
the usual wind shift. As the front slows tomorrow afternoon and
evening, moist flow over the front will result in areas of rain,
lower visibilities, and lower ceilings, particularly near the


Previous discussion... /issued 539 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

the 00z aviation discussion follows....

a large storm system over the Southern Plains will generate
showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening over much of
Oklahoma and North Texas. The accompanying low ceilings and
visibilities should mostly be relatively brief, with VFR
conditions being the rule until tomorrow morning. A cold front
will move fairly briskly southeast across the region, reaching
kwwr around 07z, and ksps/koun around 13z-14z. Behind the front,
low ceilings will move in once again, and there will be a chance
of showers and, at least in the afternoon, thunderstorms near the
front. The front is expected to stall soon after passing through
ksps/koun, and moist southeasterly flow over the front will
retain the low ceilings through the evening near/behind the front
for the rest of the day.


Previous discussion... /issued 418 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/


The upper level ridge axis will exit the Central Plains as a
highly amplified trough approaches from California. An embedded
shortwave will provide for scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are
possible, mainly over southwestern Oklahoma this evening. The main
threat with these storms will be damaging wind gusts.
Precipitation is expected to diminish from west to east by

A cold front will enter northwest OK overnight and track through
central OK during the mid-morning hours and will slow/stall over
southeast portions of the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
along the front (south of I-44 and east of I-35) tomorrow
afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk that some storms
could be severe over this area. The frontal passage will cause
winds to shift to the northwest/north initially. However, the colder
temperatures are not expected to arrive until late Thursday night
into Friday morning as a jet Max rounds the base of the long wave
trough and ejects across The Rockies and Central Plains. There is
a slight chance for sleet/snow/rain mix across northwest and
northern OK after midnight on Thursday and into Friday morning. No
accumulation is expected.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 55 58 37 46 / 40 40 60 40
Hobart OK 50 56 35 47 / 20 20 50 20
Wichita Falls Texas 60 63 41 52 / 20 60 60 40
gage OK 39 52 29 43 / 10 20 70 20
Ponca City OK 50 56 35 44 / 40 20 40 20
Durant OK 63 70 44 55 / 50 90 90 70


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

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