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fxus64 koun 170816 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
316 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Discussion...
a south wind will become rather breezy by afternoon, especially
across western Oklahoma. A relatively dry air mass remains in
place, but a slight increase in surface dewpoints will occur
today. Will likely side with the slightly drier models with
regards to dewpoint this afternoon, especially across western
Oklahoma. With rather warm afternoon temperatures, a breezy
south/southwest wind and low afternoon humidity, any fires that
ignite will spread rather quickly today. Will issue a fire danger
statement to highlight the area that is more susceptible.

A south wind will continue to increase tonight into Friday as a
shortwave trough approaches. Moisture will continue to increase
during this time which should help alleviate fire weather
concerns.

As the trough passes across the central and Southern Plains late
Friday into early Saturday, widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop. A weak cold front will also push
across much of the area during this time frame. Slightly cooler
and drier air will filter into the area for Saturday with
showers and storms ending by sunrise Saturday. The wind may be a
little breezy Saturday morning but should diminish during the
afternoon.

A south wind will quickly return Saturday night into early Sunday
morning as a stronger system moves across rockies. Better
moisture return ahead of this system may be limited to the eastern
half of Oklahoma. By Sunday afternoon, another front/dryline will
push into western Oklahoma. This will likely result in elevated
fire weather conditions across at least southwestern Oklahoma and
western North Texas where temperatures will be much warmer.
Naturally this depends on frontal timing. To the east, showers and
storms will likely develop by late afternoon as better forcing
arrives. A few storms may be severe with strong winds and hail.

The front will bring drier air back into Oklahoma and western
North Texas for Monday and Tuesday. The wind will likely be rather
windy/breezy Monday morning from the northwest, but should
diminish some during the afternoon. After a breezy/warm day
Wednesday, a rather strong front may push across the area on
Thursday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 75 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 20
Hobart OK 79 51 82 55 / 0 0 10 20
Wichita Falls Texas 80 51 83 59 / 0 0 0 10
gage OK 82 54 84 48 / 0 0 10 20
Ponca City OK 74 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 40
Durant OK 75 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

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