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fxus64 koun 111203 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR will apply through the forecast period. Winds will increase to
around 10 to 15 kt from the south late after 15z. A few mid to
high clouds will increase by mid day.


Previous discussion... /issued 315 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019/

a slight warming trend will continue across the area through Friday
with temperatures expected to be near or above normal for this time
of year. Models show a shortwave moving across the central/Southern
Plains Thursday. Clouds will increase with this system but no
precipitation is expected.

Models then show a cold front moving across the area Friday night
with a colder airmass moving into the region towards Sunday/Monday.
This colder airmass is associated with an upper system that is
expected to move across the plains at that time. However, there are
some differences as to the path of this system. The path of the
system and timing of cold air will have an impact on precipitation.
There continues to be uncertainty and model differences as to
if/where and what type of precipitation will occur. The 00z GFS has
a more northern track which would limit the extent of area of
precipitation in the fa with the highest potential in northern
portions of the fa closer to the upper system. The European model (ecmwf) and
Canadian are further south than the GFS and has at least low chances
for precipitation across a larger portion of the fa. As previously
mentioned, the timing of the colder airmass will have an impact on
precipitation type with some form of winter precipitation possible
in parts of the fa. The highest potential for winter precipitation
will be across northern OK. Right now, just have a mention of snow
in the forecast but other winter precipitation types might also be
possible depending on the timing and path of the previously
mentioned features.

Overall, this is a low confidence forecast for Sunday into Monday.
Hopefully, the models will start to be more consistent with
themselves and each other over the next few days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 52 36 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 53 35 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 55 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 54 39 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 53 37 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 53 33 55 38 / 0 0 0 0


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...

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