Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kpah 142326 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
525 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance


Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)
issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

The model guidance continues to have a high level of confidence in
dry weather for the short term. An upper level trough axis will
cross the quad state region this evening into tonight. The end
result will be the formation of a closed low in the deep south.

A surface cold front is crossing the quad state this afternoon along
with a band of upper level clouds. Low moisture levels will keep the
area precipitation free. Low level stratus will move through the
area overnight into tomorrow morning with patchier cloud coverage in
southeast Missouri relative to the rest of the quad state. Cloud
coverage will diminish from west to east Friday afternoon. On
Saturday, surface high pressure to the northeast will result in a
low-level steering flow bringing low clouds to the region from
Indiana. Models differ on the cloud cover extent and moisture with
the NAM more ambitious in this regard than the GFS and European model (ecmwf). The
forecast represents the middle of the model range for these clouds
which has increased compared to the previous run.

Aside from the I-64 corridor in Illinois, temperatures reached the
mid to upper 40s today, significantly higher than the record cold
temperatures that began the week, albeit still 10 degrees below
average. The cold front and the following rounds of low cloud cover
the next two days will temporarily halt the warming trend and keep
high temperatures similar to slightly cooler than today as we head
into the weekend.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Models continue to bring a mid/upper level trof across the pah
forecast area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Previous runs
took this feature across our region dry, but we are now seeing at
least a couple of models hinting at some light precipitation
potential with the passage. Models blends are still keeping US dry,
and for now we will keep the forecast dry, but we did bring pops up
to 14 percent Sunday afternoon and evening to account for these

Models then bring a cold front across our area late Monday night
into early Tuesday. While the GFS now hints at some light
precipitation, model blends again keep our region dry with the
passage of the front, and thus we will keep the forecast dry.

Models are in pretty good agreement bringing a more significant cold
front toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday.
This front will have more moisture to work with, and though exact
timing is still somewhat in question, we expect good chances of
showers to develop across the entire pah forecast area through the
day Thursday.

We will continue to see gradually moderating temperatures through
the extended forecast. Highs Sunday will range from the middle 40s
to around 50 degrees, warming to the 50s across the entire area by
Thursday. Lows Sunday night will be around 30 degrees, increasing
to 35 to 40 degree for Wednesday night. The only break from this
warming trend will be Tuesday night, when lows will be a couple of
degree colder than Monday night due to brief period of west to
northwest winds behind our early Tuesday cold front.


issued at 525 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

The main aviation concern is when and if low stratus or fog will
form overnight into early Friday.

Widespread clouds based around 5k feet are forecast to exit the
kevv/kowb/kpah areas this evening. A period of clear sky is likely
at all sites late this evening.

Northerly winds are forecast to decrease near the surface late
tonight, allowing a shallow temp inversion to develop. Most of the
higher resolution models develop some low stratus clouds near the
top of the inversion toward sunrise, primarily north and east of the
kpah area. Will maintain the MVFR cig at those taf sites, however
the time span of these low clouds will be shortened. They are now
forecast mainly during the very late night and early morning hours.
Clear skies are expected again by noon on Friday.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations