Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kpah 130835 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
235 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 235 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Dry conditions are forecast through the short term. Forecast
confidence is high with good model agreement.

After tuesday's record cold highs, overnight temperatures were
still flirting with or breaking records with readings in the
single digits and teens. Fortunately, the temperature trend is on
the upswing over the next several days as bitterly cold Arctic
high pressure shifts east of the region. As it does, southerly
winds will pick up today in the strengthening gradient between
the departing high and low pressure developing over the Central
High plains. This may result in a few hours of noticeable wind
chills around mid morning before ample sunshine manages to push
highs into the middle to upper 30s, which is close to the normal
lows for this time of year. Wind gusts this afternoon could reach
15 to 20 mph across portions of southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri.

The warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday despite
the passage of a cold front on Thursday. This frontal passage
will likely result in an increase in cloud cover, but the front is
too moisture starved for any precipitation. Highs on Thursday are
forecast to reach the lower to middle 40s, with similar readings
on Friday. Lows should average in the 20 to 25 degree range the
next three nights through Friday night.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 235 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

The extended forecast period still looks to remain dry, save for a
couple of very meager chances of precipitation Sunday and again
Monday-Tuesday. Models are in pretty good agreement about the
overall synoptic pattern, so confidence is above average.

On Saturday, the region will be under the influence of
zonal flow, as an area of low pressure develops off the southeast
coast and travels up the eastern Seaboard. A weak clipper-type
system will quickly swing through the region Sunday night. The
GFS/European model (ecmwf) are dry, but the Gem introduces some very light
precipitation. Forecast for Sunday afternoon and evening includes
silent pops. We'll do the same song and dance with another clipper
late Monday into Tuesday. Primary impacts from these systems will be
an increase in cloud cover. Upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure will build over the area Wednesday.

Temperatures will begin below normal on Saturday (highs in the low-
mid 40s, lows in the mid-upper 20s) and gradually warm toward toward
normal values by Wednesday (highs in the mid-upper 50s, lows in the
mid-upper 30s). It will feel positively balmy by comparison to the
last couple of days.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 235 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019

VFR conditions are expected at all forecast terminals through
tonight with some increase in scattered mid and high level clouds
during the period. Winds will pick up from the south today on the
back side of departing high pressure. Wind gusts may reach 15 to
20 knots in a corridor across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois, primarily impacting the kcgi and kmvn terminals.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations