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afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
555 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Short term...(today through Saturday night)
issued at 252 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Dry conditions will continue today and tonight. Mid and high
clouds will increase today ahead of a weak mid/upper level wave
moving toward the Mississippi Valley. This wave will deepen just
west of our region on Friday as a a surface low moves over the
Florida Panhandle by 18z Friday, then over Georgia by 06z
Saturday. Moisture will circulate north of the low, resulting in
mostly cloudy skies Friday and small chances of light rain across
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

As the low continues its north/northeast trek and the upper level
wave moves east, models show on and off small chances of light
rain in mainly eastern and northern portions of the pah forecast
area Friday night into Saturday. The best and most widespread
chances look to be Saturday morning, but overall quantitative precipitation forecast with any rain
will be very light, so we kept pops in the slight to low chances
categories. Went with dry conditions Saturday night as the surface
low moves well northeast and the mid/upper level wave moves east
of our region.

Southerly winds will help temperatures reach near to a little
above seasonal normals today through Friday night. A shift to
northwest flow by Saturday will bring temperatures down to more
seasonal readings, especially by Saturday night.

Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 252 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019

The 00z medium range guidance still brings a storm system through
the region Sunday into Monday, but they differ considerably in the
path of the surface low. The GFS is the strongest with the upper
storm system, and it develops the surface low much farther north and
takes it east northeast just north of our region. It has surface and
elevated instability ahead of the cold front that it moves through
the region Monday. Given the wind fields, severe storms would not be
out of the question.

On the other side of the spectrum is the European model (ecmwf) that is weaker with
the upper system, and takes the associated surface low south of our
area. This results in a prolonged over-running event with a more
significant winter concern depending on surface temperatures. As
usual the CMC is in between, as is the gefs mean.

This forecast leans a bit more toward the cooler solution, and has
an inch or two of snow mainly over the northwest half of the area.
There are way too many aspects (qpf, temperatures, timing) of this
system that need to be worked out to get too concerned about
potential impacts at this time. However, it does appear from a
timing standpoint that Sunday night and Monday would be the periods
of greatest concern.

Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the area
dry Tuesday through next Thursday. Temperatures will be several
degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but with south winds
trying to develop, temperatures may rebound closer to normal next
Thursday.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 555 am CST Thu Dec 12 2019

VFR conditions can be expected with scattered-broken mid and high clouds
and no vsby restrictions. Winds will be from south increasing to 7
to 12 kts with gusts of 12 to 20 kts by 18z, with the highest
gusts at kmvn, then decreasing to 5 to 10 kts around 00z.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

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