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fxus63 kpah 182023 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
223 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Short term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 215 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

More energy will be spilling down the Mississippi River valley as
deep northwesterlies keep a seasonally Cool Run of air into the
forecast area. Satellite shows plenty of cloud cover incoming with that
energy, but little in the way of actual pcpn. The models overdid
that aspect with similar energy last night, and we believe they
are doing so again tonight. We'll therefore follow our persistence
strategy forecast of drier vs wetter, but smooth into it with our
collaborative seams, as best as possible.

Wednesday is a nice transition to more seasonal temps day with
high pressure shifting east, and increasing heights helping US
break out of the deeper northwesterlies, which shift east with the
parent low. 60s reappear in the forecast for the first time in
awhile.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 215 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

The mid week warmup precedes a coming rain event that largely
occurs in the late Wednesday night through Friday time frame.
While model differences exist in the phasing of the upper
parent/energy, consensus agreement is there for a wet period
signal esp Thursday-Thursday night, with qpf ranging from about
a half inch in our north, to near one and one quarter inches in
our south. Nbm members show hints at thunder chances nosing into
the semo Ozarks in the dynamically strong system perhaps for a
brief window of time thusday PM, but at this writing, we leave any
such chances to our west/outside of the forecast area.

Model member variance increases on system passage/departure early
next weekend. Cooler air spilling in on its backside, esp at
night when surface-boundary layer temps near critical freezing
mark, may make for some change-over pcpn and perhaps some light
accums. With such differing member solutions, blended/average is
pretty much wholly accepted by seemingly all offices, so grids
reflect light accums (half inch or less) mainly north/west most
counties late Friday night-early Saturday, before lingering pcpn
chances finally draw off and move out Saturday night.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 215 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

After some breaks in overcast this PM, thicker mid cloud bases
will spread over the terminals again this evening into the
overnight hours...predominating the first half to two thirds of
the forecast. Light pcpn chances do exist, but are low enough to
preclude mention at the terminals. These clouds will then start to
break again, first from the southwest and then spreading to the
northeast, late in the night and into tmrw, or for the latter
portion of the forecast, as the parent trof axis shifts east and
high pressure starts to build into the forecast area. It is
possible that terminals further east, like kevv/kowb, do not
experience this clearing/improving trend until just beyond the
planning phase of the forecast.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.

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