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000 
FXUS63 KPAH 142313
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
513 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Aviation updated for 00z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2019

Lots going on this period.

Overall pattern has one trough moving through the area producing a
few light sprinkles which will be out of the area this evening. A
piece of energy off the west coast will quickly dive southeast and
be over the Texas panhandle by 12z Monday. At the surface a cold 
front will extend from southern Texas into central Kentucky. Waves
of energy will ride up along the front until it moves east on 
Tuesday. 

Temperatures tomorrow and Monday will be tricky especially along
the northwest and northern counties. This will play a rather large
role in precipitation type and changeovers. 

As moisture moves in Sunday afternoon expect a mixture of rain and
snow until 00z Monday. Soundings show the loss of ice crystals
along the northern border which brings a changeover from snow/rain
to freezing rain as surface temperatures go just below freezing
for a good portion of the night. Amounts stay below warning
criteria and temperatures will warm up enough early on Monday to
switch everything back to rain. 

After 00Z Tuesday, colder air moves in and again a changeover to
freezing rain and some snow before ending after midnight. 

Thunder is possible over the southern counties as some instability
will exist aloft...mainly around 850 mb, Sunday Night into Monday.

Snowfall amounts are expected to be less than a half inch along
the I-64 corridor area with the first round on Sunday Night. 
Monday night should only be a few tenths. Ice accumulations could 
be over a tenth of an inch with the first round Sunday Night, with
only a few hundredths Monday Night.

Locally heavy rain is possible across western kentucky close to
the front. The most likely time for heavy rain is Sunday Night
along an axis from Mayfield to Greenville Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Saturday) 
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2019

Quiet weather is expected for much of the extended forecast 
period. Our aforementioned weather system will be well east of the
region by Tuesday morning. Cloud cover will slowly clear the area
as upper- level ridging and Arctic high pressure arrive from the 
northwest.
 
Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet chilly, with highs ranging from 
the middle 30s in our north to middle 40s in the south. Low 
temperatures will be in the lower to middle 20s for much of the 
region. The area of high pressure will shift east of the area by 
Thursday, and southerly return flow will allow temperatures to 
moderate to near seasonable values. 

While dry conditions are currently forecast through Saturday, the 
latest models guidance has come into better agreement that a quick-
moving shortwave trough will develop over the central/southern 
Rockies Thursday and potentially bring some precipitation to our 
area for late Friday/Saturday. Currently have silent POPs forecast 
for this period, but trends will need to watched in the coming days 
for adjustments. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 510 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Think the guidance is too quick to get rid of the lower MVFR/IFR
cigs and scattered MVFR vsbys tonight. Will hold on to them longer
based on fog satellite imagery. There may be some improvement
Sunday morning into the VFR category at times. By Sunday
afternoon, light precipitation will start to spread across the
area, as rain, possibly a wintry mix north of a KMDH-KCUL line.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

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