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fxus63 kpah 132315 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
515 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

issued at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Updated aviation discussion for 00z taf issuance.


Short term...(tonight through Friday night)
issued at 142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

The 12z guidance offers no debate on our next upper-level trough
moving through the area dry Thursday. There will be a weak frontal
passage through the day, but it will not pack much of a punch,
certainly compared to what happened on Monday. A slightly
freshened surface high will then settle over the area Friday.
Aloft, some ridging will develop eastward over the region, as the
trough deepens over the northeast Gulf Coast.

Temperatures have struggled to warm up today, even with the south
winds and full sunshine. However, visible satellite indicates that
much of the snow cover has melted over the southern half of the
area. Going forward temperatures should climb into the 40s
throughout the area Thursday, but it will be close across the
north where the snowpack remains. A few upper 30s will not be
surprising up there. We may give back a degree or two behind the
front Friday. At least 15 degrees below normal feels a lot better
than the 35 degrees below normal we experienced yesterday.

Long term...(saturday through wednesday)
issued at 142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Surface high pressure over the northeast U.S. And weak upper level
ridging over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys will keep
our region dry through the weekend. Despite continued northeast
surface flow, our gradual moderation in temperatures will continue,
though readings by Sunday will still be well below seasonal normals.

By Sunday night into Monday, models bring a mid/upper level trof
through our region. With little low level moisture to work with, no
precipitation is expected. However, we should see quite a bit more
in the way of clouds ahead of the trof Sunday into Sunday night,
with decreasing clouds on the back side of the trof Monday.

We will briefly see a return of weak southwest flow late Monday into
Monday. Models then show a very weak boundary moving across the
region Monday night. The main effect of this boundary will be a few
more clouds Monday night and a brief shift of winds to the
west/northwest on Tuesday. The slow warming trend will continue
even with the passage of the boundary.

By 12z Wednesday, models show surface high moving back over the pah
forecast area and mid/upper level ridging building over the
Mississippi Valley. South winds on Wednesday will help give US the
warmest temperatures of the forecast period, with readings finally
rebounding to near normal values.


issued at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Gridded time/height cross sections reveal a Bone dry atmosphere
below about 10k feet above ground level holding tonight...but maybe some scattered
to broken mid or high clouds could traverse skies as the night
wears on/toward morning. Tomorrow, we see an upper level trof
drive a weak/dry cold front slowly across the area. While there is
no pcpn with the trof/front, we do see condensation pressure
deficits drop to 10-30 mb between 750-850 some lower VFR
bases were put into the forecast to account for that. Models are
hinting at even some high end MVFR/low end VFR bases at kmvn
toward evening, so we introduced that possibility as
well...realizing that may be adjusted later.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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