Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS63 KPAH 090041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
641 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Issued at 641 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Updated aviation discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Skies are rapidly becoming overcast across the region and will 
likely stay that way through the period. The 12Z guidance has 
trended a bit farther north with the initial disturbance that is 
expected to bring showers to the region through Monday. This 
results in a downward trend in QPF for our area, with all areas 
generally a half inch or less with the greatest amounts still in 
the Evansville Tri State area. The light showers should get going 
mid to late evening and then become more widespread overnight and 
through Monday.

The consensus cold frontal timing has shifted a bit quicker, and
now should be entering the area by midday Monday and clearing the
area by 00Z Tuesday. Despite the faster frontal passage, the
temperatures behind it have trended a bit warmer, which is a good
thing. In response to the larger-scale upper trough approaching
the area, the 12Z guidance in general develops some banded 
precipitation behind the front later Monday night into Tuesday 
morning, mainly across far southeast Missouri and west Kentucky.

There is some variability in how far north into our area the 
precipitation will make it, but areas along the Tennessee border 
at the very least stand a chance to see some snowfall Tuesday 
morning. Temperatures generally stay just above freezing, and with
warm ground temperatures, it will have a hard time accumulating.
The biggest concern is if it can come down hard enough, even for 
a brief period, it may briefly be able to coat most surfaces. 
Right now that does not seem likely. 

Temperatures should be increasing slowly into and through the 50s
tonight, with at least the southeast half of the area likely to
reach 60 degrees Monday before the cold front arrives. 
Temperatures will plummet behind the front Monday night and may 
not recover much on Tuesday, especially if there is any 
significant snowfall. Lows Monday night will range from the upper 
20s northwest to mid 30s south, and highs on Tuesday will remain 
in the 30s areawide. Skies should clear throughout the area 
Tuesday night, and with surface high pressure settling over the 
region, temperatures should plummet into the lower 20s in most 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Chilly surface high pressure will be centered over the Upper Midwest 
at the beginning of the period. This high will translate north and 
east of the area through Thursday, keeping us dry until Friday. Our 
next weathermaker will come in the form of a midlevel shortwave 
trough that will come ashore in California Wednesday. This trough 
will eject from the Four Corners into the southern Plains by Friday.

Models are in agreement that this trough will initiate surface low 
pressure around the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by late Friday 
that will move northeast along/near the Eastern Seaboard through 
next weekend. The PAH CWA looks to be well to the west of the 
surface low track. However, on Friday afternoon through Saturday 
afternoon, there could be some light wraparound rain showers, 
possibly mixed with snow showers, mainly in the Kentucky Pennyrile 
and southwest Indiana. Either way, precipitation amounts look 
minimal at this time. 

Will need to watch Sunday night into Monday, as another quick- 
moving disturbance looks to be passing through or near the region 
during this period which could bring additional precipitation 
chances. Confidence is low regarding the placement of this 
feature, so accepted the NBM solution of isolated to low chance 
POPs for now.

Temperatures will be slow to rebound in the wake of the chilly 
Canadian high pressure. High temperatures will start in the upper 
30s to lower 40s on Wednesday, moderating slightly to the lower to
middle 40s through the weekend. Lows will be in the 20s on 
Wednesday, warming into the middle to upper 30s through the 


Issued at 641 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Southerly winds will increase overnight, and are forecast to be 
sustained around 15 knots gusting to around 25 knots, across most of 
the region for most of the day Mon. This should make vsby 
restrictions less of a challenge vs. 24 hours ago, as mostly MVFR 
vsbys are expected. Where winds are forecast to be lighter, parts of 
the MO Ozark Foothills may have some vsby restrictions around 
daybreak due to fog. 

Otherwise, rain showers are expected to break out across the 
region this evening, and continue overnight and into the daylight 
hours Mon. IFR cigs will be common west of the MS River overnight, 
and in parts of southern IL/southwestern IN after daybreak. 
Otherwise, MVFR cigs can be expected, especially in the late 
afternoon as a wind shift to the west begins to occur across 
southeastern MO/southern IL.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations