Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS63 KPAH 111206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
606 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Weak surface high pressure will slide across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys today, moving well east
of our region tonight. Clear skies are expected today into this
evening, with an increase in clouds beginning from the northwest 
late tonight and continuing into Thursday. South to southwest 
winds will help temperatures moderate today into Thursday. Highs
today will climb into the lower to middle 40s, with seasonal
temperatures by Thursday with readings in the upper 40s to around
50 degrees.

By Thursday night, a surface low will be moving along the Gulf
coast as a mid/upper level trof approaches the PAH forecast area
from the west. The ECMWF takes the surface low over the Florida 
Panhandle by 18z Friday. Moisture will push north of this low, 
and this brings light rain into southeast portions of the region 
by Friday morning, spreading chances across west Kentucky and 
southwest Indiana through the day Friday. Models take the low up 
the Atlantic coast Friday night, and this will spread rain chances
across our entire area, with the best chances across our eastern 
half of counties. 

Temperatures late Thursday night (in the lower to middle 30s) and
late Friday night (middle 30s to around 40 degrees) may give us 
the potential for a little mix of snow with the rain, but these 
chances will be very brief and result in no impacts. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

A large portion of the long term has fairly low confidence. A rather 
potent system is expected to develop as a mid/upper level trof 
translates east (then northeast) from the southern Rockies Sunday 
into the Plains and MS River valley early next week. 

Saturday will feature a kind of "in-between" day as low pressure 
system departs toward the northeast U.S., and Canadian high pressure 
presses southeast into the northern Plains. A weak mid level short 
wave is expected to scoot through the lower OH River Valley during 
the day, but seems rather moisture-starved at this point and should 
not provide much of an impact to our region. May not be much in the 
way of sunshine either though, esp east of the MS River, with temps 
in the 40s to near 50. 

Though the aformentioned surface high will push south into the 
Midwest on Sunday, isentropic lift ahead of the trof over the 
southern Rockies may be able to generate some light precipitation 
along and to the north of a west-east oriented sfc boundary located 
from the western Gulf Coast states ne into the lower TN River Valley 
(mainly later in the day). Precip chances will then increase Sunday 
night into Monday as a surface low develops on the frontal boundary 
and begins to strengthen and head northeast. 

It seems as though enough cold air will be in place on Sunday into 
Sunday night for any light precipitation to fall in the form of snow 
or a rain/snow mix over a good portion of the forecast area. 
Thereafter, numerical models fan out with their solutions on where 
the sfc low will track, and where an eventual significant QPF 
amounts, precip types, etc. will end up as well. Thus, at this 
point, think it is best on our end to just message the fact that 
this seems to be a system that bears monitoring during the next 
several days. Forecast confidence this far out is extremely low. As 
an example, the 00z GFS MOS paints a max temp of 57 at PAH on 
Monday, while the ECMWF MOS suggests a high of 38!! It will just 
take some more time to get a better handle on this one.


Issued at 606 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Clear skies expected through the TAF period with no vsby 
restrictions. Winds will be from the south to southwest, 
increasing to 6 to 14 kts by 18z, then decreasing to less than 6 
kts after 00z.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations