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fxus63 kpah 120025 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
625 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Update...
issued at 619 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Updated aviation discussion for 00z taf issuance.

&&

Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 325 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

We will be expanding the Winter Weather Advisory southward over
the remainder of the area. Will begin the southeast corner from
Murray to Greenville Kentucky at 00z, as it will take a few hours
for the change over to occur there. Will leave the expiration times
the same with the measurable snow moving out of the east around
06z.

The change over to snow has come in a bit faster than expected,
and most locations have had a little sleet before the change over
to all snow. However, it appears that the deeper forcing is
spotty at this time, so we have some areas with lighter radar
echoes still reporting light rain/freezing with temperatures near
freezing and other areas reporting snow at 37 or 38f. As the
temperatures continue to fall, the approach of the upper trough
should result in deep saturation and a few hours of some decent
snowfall throughout the area.

The 12z models continue to increase qpf, especially across
southeast Missouri. We now have a half to two-thirds of an inch
from southeast Missouri eastward into The Purchase area of
Kentucky and adjacent portions of southern Illinois. With the
earlier onset of snow, amounts have increased a bit. Could see
more 2" amounts with a few isolated 3" amounts possible,
especially in the hills of southeast Missouri. We now have at
least 1.5" extending to the southern border of the area, thus the
expansion of the advisory throughout the area.

Temperatures are already plummeting well below freezing across
southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, and it will not take
long for the freezing line to push through southwest Indiana and
west Kentucky, especially with the solar input dwindling at this
point. Regardless of amounts there should be plenty of snowfall
to result in some slick conditions at least on bridges and
untreated roadways this evening even in the southern pennyrile. As
temperatures fall into the teens tonight any remaining moisture on
the roads will quickly freeze. The morning commute may not be
pretty.

Record lows are likely to fall throughout the area with
low temperatures tonight expected to range from 13 in the
northwest to near 17 in the far south. Wind chills will straddle
zero for several hours, including school bus time in the morning.
Will continue address this with a Special Weather Statement for
the entire area.

With the potential for more white stuff on the ground Tuesday,
guidance has trended down a few degrees, with many locations not
climbing out of the middle 20s for highs. This should shatter min
Max temperature records in many locations.

Winds will finally calm down Tuesday night as the surface high
settles over the region. This will lead to slightly lower low
temperatures, but with negligible wind chill impact. Record lows
for Wednesday will be in play.

Another storm system will approach the area from the northwest
Wednesday night. This will result in increasing south winds and a
modest warm up to above freezing Wednesday. However, highs should
still be in the 30s.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 325 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

A mid level shortwave will move through our region on Thu, with a
weak surface reflection/surface wind shift through the region by
nightfall. The passage of this feature is expected to be dry, with
just increased cloudiness. The medium range models and the National
blend appeared to be in good agreement that our region will remain
dry until Mon (day 7) when perhaps there might be some showers
associated with a meridional mid level shortwave. The vast majority
of the extended forecast period however, we will be under ridging
aloft and near or under a surface ridge axis. Temps are forecast to
gradually moderate in the latter half of the week, slowed a bit by
the Thu frontal passage. Near-seasonable temps may be achieved by
sun and Mon tempered somewhat by increased cloud cover.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 619 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

The cold front having made passage, pcpn has made its changeover
(or will soon) to snow at all terminals. Restricted flight cats
for both cigs/vsbys continue with pcpn thru mid evening, but
should begin to improve thereafter as pcpn winds down. Skies
actually scatter/clear later tonight, while winds may remain gusty
into tmrw. A return to visual flight rules is expected by late
tonight-early tmrw.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
ilz075>078-080>089.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
ilz090>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for moz076-
086-087-100-107-108.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
moz109>112-114.

In...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for inz081-
082-085>088.

Kentucky...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
kyz001>022.

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