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fxus63 kpah 120902 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
302 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 302 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The advisory event is over, and seemed to go well in terms of
timing, amounts and impacts, minus a couple of suspect outlier
high snow reports. This event validates, that despite so-called
"warm ground conditions" prior, once you get late in the day and
after dark, coupled with strong cold advection, roads can get
slick quickly under these conditions. Bitter cold this morning
with gusty north-northwest winds 10 to 20+ mph and temperatures in the teens
resulting in single digits to just below zero wind chills.
Scattered clouds and flurries will continue to move south and out
of semo and west Kentucky up through sunrise. The strong Arctic high
will become centered over the area by 00z. Winds will diminish
through the day. However, it will remain cold. Snow cover strength
of the high will result in record cold highs today in the lower
to mid 20s. Sublimation and some degree of insolation will be the
only hopes for any minimal reduction in snow cover. We will
maintain a Special Weather Statement to cover the very cold wind
chill temperatures, and lingering slick roads across the region
this morning.

Quiet weather tonight through Thursday night, with slowly
moderating, but still below normal temperatures, as the high
moves east. A mid level S/WV will pass north of the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a positive tilt mid
level trof moving toward and then over the area late in the
period, in tandem with the passage of a surface frontal boundary.
Lack of moisture means dry weather to continue.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 302 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Not much to discuss in the long term with relatively few targets of
opportunity. Forecast confidence starts off higher than average with
good overall model agreement. Confidence lowers some early next week
with somewhat greater model variability.

A dry forecast should carry over from the short term through much of
the weekend. An upper low/trough over the southeast at the start of
the period will shift east as a low amplitude ridge builds east from
the plains through late week. This will result in a slow warming
trend through early next week. Highs should moderate from the lower
40s on Friday into the lower 50s by Monday. Meanwhile, lows are
forecast to warm from the middle 20s Friday night into the middle
30s by Monday night.

Shortwave energy over the Pacific northwest on Friday is progged to
morph into an elongated trough as it dives southeast into the plains
on Sunday and Mississippi Valley by Monday. While the approach and
passage of this feature may result in an increase in cloud cover by
Sunday and Monday, current indications are that any precipitation
may tend to dissipate as it moves into the area due to weak forcing
and a lack of substantial moisture convergence. As a result, the
model consensus forecast is dry at this time.


issued at 302 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

For the 12z taf's VFR conditions, with diminishing north winds
today. Light winds tonight.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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