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fxus63 kpah 221655 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1155 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

issued at 1154 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Minor update for the short term time period, mainly for
this afternoon and tonight to reflect wind, temperature,
cloud cover, and dewpoint trends. Little substantive
changes to forecast through Wednesday night at this time.


Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 326 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Surface high pressure will build over Texas today, sliding
southeast of our region by late Wednesday. Conditions will be dry
and cool through tonight with temperatures about 5 degrees below
seasonal normals. With low pressure over the Great Lakes and high
pressure to our southwest today, the pressure gradient will be
fairly tight across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River
valleys. This will give US breezy conditions today, with west
winds at 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 20 to 25 kts.

With the high southeast of our region on Wednesday, winds will
shift back to the south to southwest. This will result in warmer
conditions, with temperatures rebounding back to seasonal values
for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 326 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Overall confidence in the long term is generally low at this time.
Deterministic models differ in the handling of the trof digging into
the Southern Plains/SW U.S. Thursday/Thu night. The European model (ecmwf)/Canadian
seem to want to cut the upper low off out over The Four Corners
region, with ridging over the MS River Valley, while the 00z GFS
keeps the wave open over the Southern Plains with a wetter SW flow
aloft regime (esp over se MO/SW il). At this point, opted to go with
more of a nbm blended solution, which keep 20-30 pops over the
northwest half of the forecast area. Not looking for any big impacts
at this time as an associated sfc front sinks south into the region.

After a mostly dry and partly cloudy Fri/Fri night, the European model (ecmwf)/CMC
solutions still paint a much wetter scene Sat aftn and Sat night as
the aforementioned upper low ejects NE through the srn plains. The
GFS is dry however, with high pressure moving in behind the more
progressive open h50 trof. The nbm indicated a compromise of course,
with limited pops peaking Sat night and diminishing rapidly sun as
heights and pressures rise in the low's wake. Again, not expecting
significant impacts at this time. Temps are forecast to be generally
below seasonable averages Friday. Temps over the weekend will be
highly dependent on the amount of sunshine we see, and how much if
any precip occurs. Right now, will play more of a middle of Road
solution to minimize potential error, and keep temps at or just
below norms.


issued at 649 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

VFR conditions through the taf period. Winds today will increase
from the west to 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts,
decreasing to 5 to 10 kts after 00z.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


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