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fxus63 kpah 182246 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
446 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Short term...(tonight through wednesday)
issued at 215 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

More energy will be spilling down the Mississippi River valley as
deep northwesterlies keep a seasonally Cool Run of air into the
forecast area. Satellite shows plenty of cloud cover incoming with that
energy, but little in the way of actual pcpn. The models overdid
that aspect with similar energy last night, and we believe they
are doing so again tonight. We'll therefore follow our persistence
strategy forecast of drier vs wetter, but smooth into it with our
collaborative seams, as best as possible.

Wednesday is a nice transition to more seasonal temps day with
high pressure shifting east, and increasing heights helping US
break out of the deeper northwesterlies, which shift east with the
parent low. 60s reappear in the forecast for the first time in
awhile.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 215 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

The mid week warmup precedes a coming rain event that largely
occurs in the late Wednesday night through Friday time frame.
While model differences exist in the phasing of the upper
parent/energy, consensus agreement is there for a wet period
signal esp Thursday-Thursday night, with qpf ranging from about
a half inch in our north, to near one and one quarter inches in
our south. Nbm members show hints at thunder chances nosing into
the semo Ozarks in the dynamically strong system perhaps for a
brief window of time Thursday PM, but at this writing, we leave
any such chances to our west/outside of the forecast area.

Model member variance increases on system passage/departure early
next weekend. Cooler air spilling in on its backside, esp at
night when surface-boundary layer temps near critical freezing
mark, may make for some change-over pcpn and perhaps some light
accums. With such differing member solutions, blended/average is
pretty much wholly accepted by seemingly all offices, so grids
reflect light accums (half inch or less) mainly north/west most
counties late Friday night-early Saturday, before lingering pcpn
chances finally draw off and move out Saturday night.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 445 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Another shortwave will be moving through the weather forecast office pah taf sites
again tonight and into early Tuesday. Again, there may be
intermittent sprinkles of rain, but this should not create any
visibility reduction.

Most ceilings and cloud bases will remain sufficiently high in the
VFR category. Lower VFR ceilings will dominate the kmvn, kevv, and
kowb taf locations. Kowb may briefly drop into the upper MVFR
category between 17z and 19z on Tuesday.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.

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