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fxus63 kpah 070855 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
255 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 250 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

High pressure to the north of the quad state will keep conditions
dry as we head into the weekend. The primary forecast challenge in
the short term is the extent and persistence of cloud cover with
overcast conditions in much of western Kentucky at this time and
little cloud cover north and west of the Ohio River. Winds should
stay high enough early this morning to prevent fog from forming.
Predawn temps range from the upper 20s along the I-64 corridor to
the upper 30s in the southern pennyrile region, with the large
range spanning low to higher cloud cover areas.

This morning, cloud cover should largely be confined to western
Kentucky and portions of southeast Missouri with mostly clear
skies to the north. As the high moves towards the east, winds will
turn from easterly during the day to southerly overnight. High
temperatures will depend on how much the cloud cover clears with
higher temps where clearing occurs.

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream into the area from the
south Sunday, elevating dew points and increasing cloud coverage. At
this time pops were left out during the day Sunday as most models
delay precipitation onset until after sunset. Wind gusts up to 20
kts are expected for much of the quad state region during the
afternoon hours.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 250 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

A somewhat complex mid/upper level pattern will develop Sunday
night as northern and southern stream systems dig southeast into
the The Rockies and southwestern United States. The two streams
are expected to remain separate as they eject eastward into the
plains on Monday, with the northern branch a bit ahead (east) of
the southern stream. Meanwhile, at the surface, low pressure will
develop out over the Texas Panhandle region, and move northeast
toward the southern Great Lakes during the day Monday.

Mid level forcing ahead of the approaching trofs will interact
with the surface low (and trailing Arctic cold front) to produce a
fairly widespread area of rainfall, especially along/east of the
MS river, Sunday night and Monday. The lagging southern branch
trof will then force a secondary surge of rain Monday night as the
Arctic front pushes across the forecast area. This will mainly
affect western Kentucky and SW in. In general, expecting from a quarter
to a half inch of rainfall, with the higher amounts over SW in and
the northern pennyrile region of western Kentucky.

Moisture/precip will likely be exiting the region as much colder
air spills southeast behind the cold front Monday night/early
Tuesday. There remains some chance of a brief change to a touch
of light snow or flurries as this occurs, but we are not expecting
any real impacts at this time. The bigger story will lie with the
Arctic air surge coming in for Tuesday through mid week. High
temperatures may not make it above the freezing mark over
southwest in and adjacent portions of southern Illinois on Wednesday,
with low temps Tue/Wed nights in the mid teens to lower 20s.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

MVFR ceilings continue to plague the southeast portions of the
region late this evening. With weak steering flow present
overnight into tomorrow morning, it seems plausible that this low
cloud deck may migrate back westward some and maintain existence
into the day tomorrow. Kpah looks to be impacted the longest.
Kevv/kowb may end up clearing later overnight into the early
morning, although don't have the the greatest confidence in this.
Light winds will veer from northerly overnight to southeasterly
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Just beyond this forecast period, we
may have to contend with another period of MVFR ceilings
developing over portions of the region tomorrow night.



&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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