Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 231137
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
737 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
dry weather and seasonable temperature is expected until the approach
of weekend low pressure.
Near term /through tonight/...
forecast is in good shape as of 730 am, with no changes needed at
Dry weather, limited cloud coverage, and temperatures right around
normal are expected today as high pressure builds in south of the
forecast area. Gusty winds are expected this afternoon with a
relatively tight pressure gradient and stronger westerly winds aloft
are tapped as the boundary layer deepens. Latest guidance and analogs
both suggest 25-30mph wind gusts at times.
Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
dry weather will persist through Thursday under the influence of sfc
high pressure south of the region. Warm advection with increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will support above normal temperature
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
dry and seasonable conditions should continue on Friday before low
pressure returns rain to the region later on Saturday and Sunday.
There is currently a large spread in deterministic guidance in the
extended period. However, ensembles and teleconnections all point
towards a shift to a more amplified/meridional longwave pattern by
the middle of next week which will increase potential for colder,
more unsettled conditions (inc. Snow) as we end the month of October
and head into November.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR is expected through the taf period under a ridge of high
pressure. Gusty west-southwest wind from 20-25kt is expected by mid morning as
mixing increases, and the region remains under a tight pressure
gradient between a high to our S and a strong low over Ontario.
Wind should diminish by late afternoon as the gradient relaxes and
mixing ends, though llws is expected Wed night from pit north as a
low lvl jet moves over the lower Great Lakes region.
restrictions are possible late Sat/sun with crossing low pressure.