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000 
FXUS65 KPUB 152153
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
253 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019

...Snow will pick up in Colorado Springs and Pueblo around 6 pm this 
evening...

Currently...

Storm has been an over-achiever in several areas as Walsenburg is up 
to a foot, and parts of the San Luis Valley (SLV) floor have 
received 4-6", and Leadville proper is over 2 feet of snow in the 
last ~60 hours. 

At 2 pm this afternoon. radar was showing snow up and down the I-25 
corridor from roughly south of COS down to KTAD. Heaviest snow was 
down on the Raton Mesa. Looking at CDOT web cams, roads everywhere 
were just wet except at the passes where they were snow packed. 
Temps across the region were just below freezing along the I-25 
corridor with mid 30s across the rest of the eastern plains, except 
vicinity KSPD were temps were in the low 30s. The SLV was in the 
upper 20s to around 30F. Mtn tops were in the single digits, so 
lower level lapse rates were pretty steep over the region. 

Rest of Today and Tonight...

All of the guidance have been very insistent at indicating snow 
across the I-25 corridor will start to pick up in earnest generally 
after 6 pm and should last until 5-6 AM tomorrow morning. 0.15 to 
0.25 liquid is expected to fall in the COS area with higher amounts 
west of town, and KPUB should get around 0.40 liquid. As we have 
been advertising on social media, there is going to be a very tight 
gradient in snowfall depth in the PUB and COS areas, with areas 
generally east of the interstate not receiving much snow while areas 
just to the west receiving over 6". Down towards Walsenburg and 
Trinidad, the snow will push farther out onto the plains (as 
Walsenburg has already received a foot of snow, as mentioned above). 

The Wets, wet mtn valley and the eastern slopes of the Sangres are 
likely going to do quite well with this storm, as snowfall totals 
will likely be in the 1-2 feet range. The SLV should get a few more 
inches before it ends later tonight. 

Temps tonight should fall into the tens across the plains with 
single digits and negative single digits across the SLV and mtns. 

Tomorrow...

Some light snow will be ongoing across the plains and s mtns 
tomorrow morning, but should come to an end by late morning. with 
fresh snowfall, areas around the Raton Mesa should remain below 
freezing tomorrow while out east should see temps in teh mid 30s. 
SLV should be cold all day with temps in the U20s. MTNS will remain 
quite cold with single digits for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019

Monday night...The upper level low pressure trough will be exiting 
the region, as a ridge of high pressure moves into the western US. 
Save for a few lingering snow showers across the sw and s mts during 
the early evening, skies will be clearing through the night with a 
very cold night anticipated. Overnight minimum temps are forecast to 
be below zero for the mts and high valleys, and single digits for 
the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Temporary ridging pushes into the Four 
Corners region, with dry and slowly warming conditions expected. 
Plan on highs on Tue to be a bit cool, with teens and 20s for the 
high valleys, and 30s to near 40F for the plains. Wed should be 
about 7-10 degrees warmer.

Thursday...Long range models indicate another fast-moving upper low 
crossing the area on Thu. At this time it looks like it will be dry 
and will mainly increase cloud cover across the forecast area, 
though a snow shower or two over mt areas is not out of the 
question. Highs will remain nearly the same as wed, with readings in 
the mid 20s to mid 30s for the high valleys, and 40s to near 50F for 
the plains.

Friday through Sunday...Another upper ridge of high pressure will 
slide across the region, providing for a dry and gradually warming 
weekend. Look for highs in the 30s for the high valleys and 40s to 
around 50F for the plains on Fri. Sat and Sun will be warmer with 
highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to 
lower 60s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 253 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019

MVFR and LIFR conditions are likely, especially after dark at each 
of the 3 TAF sites, KALS, KCOS and KPUB. Conditions will start to 
clear by mid morning tomorrow as the weather system moves off to the 
east. Winds will be light, but the snow will likely accumulate on 
aircraft surfaces/runways due to the falling temperatures.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for 
COZ058>061.

Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM MST Monday for COZ066-068-072-
073-079-080.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ076>078-
081>083.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Monday for COZ062-063-065-
067-069>071.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM MST Monday for COZ074-075.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ086-087.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ094.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ088.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ064.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Monday for COZ084-085.

&&

$$

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