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fxus62 krah 141923 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

high pressure will allow for dry weather tonight and Tuesday before
a mid week system brings more rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
weather will turn drier and cooler for the rest of the week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 320 PM Monday...

Last night's cold front remains visible along the Carolina shoreline
with some diurnal cumulus. Once you get west of Interstate 95, skies
are completely clear with widespread dewpoints in the 30s and 40s.
Clear skies will continue tonight with high pressure building in
from the Ohio River valley. While lows will not be too different
from last night in the northwest where skies had already begun to
clear out, most other locations will have lows anywhere from 5 to 15
degrees colder than last night.


Short term /Tuesday and Tuesday night/...
as of 320 PM Monday...

Sunrise tomorrow should have just a few high clouds across the south
with cloud cover expanding north through the day. This will be due
to a wave developing along the cold front back to the southwest
along the Gulf Coast. Despite the increasing cloud cover, tuesday's
highs should be similar to monday's highs. Although the daytime
hours will remain dry, rain will spread from south to north
overnight, enveloping the entire region as the cleared front moves
back to the north as a warm front. Instability appears minimal, and
no chance of thunderstorms has been included in the forecast. In
addition, another cold front will begin to shift east, reaching the
Appalachians by Wednesday morning. Due to widespread cloud cover,
lows will not drop nearly as much Tuesday night, similar to last
night's values with rain showers.


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 248 PM Monday...

The long term period will start off wet on Wednesday with today's
cold front lifting back north as a warm front in advance of a
longwave mid/upr trough moving across eastern North America. Moist
SW flow ahead of the trough axis and assoc overrunning of the
retreating cooler airmass will result in increasing clouds and rain
developing from SW to NE during the daytime. In addition, a
developing wave of low pressure along the boundary will cross ern
NC, thus look for a few tstms as well along and east of the low
track. Eventually the trailing cold front will sweep across the
areas late in the day or Wednesday evening, with cold air advection and decreasing
cloudiness in its wake.

Thereafter, a cooler drier airmass will move into the region as high
pressure builds in from the west. We can expect a dry weather
Thursday through mid-day Sunday, with the coolest wx Thursday
through Friday, before high pressure moves offshore and return flow
gradually moderates the airmass over the weekend. Friday morning
looks to be the coldest morning in the stretch, with lows around 40,
possibly dipping into the upper 30s in the normally colder spots.

By late Sunday, the next trough will deepen across the middle of the
country, so look for developing southerly flow and a warm front and
perhaps some warm advection-driven rain to move back into the area
either Sunday night or Monday.


Aviation /10z Monday through Friday/...
as of 320 PM Monday...

Except for a few VFR diurnal clouds this afternoon near Fay, the
area should be nearly cloud free through the taf period.

Outlook: a warm front and accompanying deepening area of low
pressure will cross NC Tue night-early Wed, at which time widespread
rain/showers and sub-VFR conditions are expected. By Wednesday
night, VFR conditions should return to the region.


Rah watches/warnings/advisories...



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