Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 krev 121130
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
330 am PST Tue Nov 12 2019
The tranquil weather continues for much of this week with
seasonable morning temperatures and above average highs. Morning
inversions will continue with minor air quality impacts. High
pressure weakens by mid-week leading to increased cloud cover and
cooler daytime temperatures for the end of week with cooler
weather likely by next week.
Short term...through Thursday evening...
Very little change made to the forecast this cycle.
High pressure will remain over the western half of the US for the
next several days. So, we will continue to see light winds, warm
afternoon highs and cool morning lows, with early morning
inversions. High clouds will make their way into the area this
afternoon through Thursday evening thanks to some upper level
The low providing this moisture is currently situated in between
California and Hawaii. This low will weaken into a wave as it moves
eastward and into our area. No precipitation is expected, but high
clouds will continue. The biggest impact from this wave will be an
increase in ridge winds late Wednesday evening through early Friday
morning and some slightly cooler temperatures. -Cassie
Long term...Thursday through Tuesday...
No major changes were made the forecast for the weekend.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees down to the low to mid 60s
with mostly clear skies and light winds.
Long range ensemble models continue to come into better agreement
with a trough dropping into the Great Basin next week displacing
the ridge of high pressure that has persisted over the region the
last few weeks. Therefore, forecast confidence is increasing that
the recent well above average temperatures will fall to near
normal, potentially below normal, next week as low pressure moves
back over the region.
Precipitation signals are much less robust. The low pressure is
dropping in from the north, limiting it's moisture content and
the orographic lifting potential of the Sierra. However, both the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS operational models are showing indications that the
low could continue to deepen over the region rather than quickly
move through. This would keep cooler temperatures around for a
longer period of time and increase the chances for at least some
light rain and snow moving over the region next week. Bottom line
confidence is increasing in cooler weather next week, but
precipitation amounts are expected to be limited. -Zach
Light winds and VFR conditions expected at all terminals the next
few days. A wave brushing by the region will bring increasing mid
and upper level clouds today along with gusty ridge winds of up to
30-40kts by Thursday. -Zach