Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 231744
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
144 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
high pressure through Thursday night yielding dry conditions
and seasonable temperatures. A system possible for the weekend,
although timing is uncertain.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 130 PM Wednesday...
With clear skies and valley winds expected to become light
tonight in portions of West Virginia and southwestern Virginia,
expect frost to form. Will issue a frost advisory for valleys in
these areas. Note that due to previous freezing temperatures,
the growing season has ended already in much of the West
Virginia mountains, so no frost advisory in those areas.
A high pressure system will slide eastward as a weak and dry
cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will stall
over central Ohio Thursday, providing only some clouds in Ohio
and northwestern West Virginia.
Short term /Thursday night/...
as of 340 am Wednesday...
Dry weather with pleasant temperatures are expected Thursday and
Thursday night as a high pressure remains in control. Models
bring a weak cold front over the Ohio River by 00z Friday.
Perhaps this limited moisture frontal boundary could bring an
increase in clouds with little or no precipitation.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 340 am Wednesday...
A surface low pressure will emerge from the southern stream and
track northeast across the Ohio Valley into West Virginia Friday
night and Saturday. Models continue to show differences on
timing and intensity of showers expected on Saturday. The NAM
and sref look faster with their quantitative precipitation forecast fields affecting southern WV
by 06z Saturday, while the GFS/European model (ecmwf) models bring the bulk of
pcpn by 12-18z Saturday. Either way, have coded likely pops with
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 100 PM Wednesday...
VFR conditions expected through the period. A weak and dry cold
front will approach central Ohio on Thursday and could provide a
wind shift, but no restrictions.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Thursday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
After 18z Thursday...
morning valley fog possible Friday particularly in deeper
WV...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Thursday for
Virginia...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Thursday for