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fxus61 krlx 141851 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
251 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

high pressure into Tuesday. Next cold front crosses Wednesday.
High pressure for the end of the work week and into the weekend.
Another system late in weekend.


Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 120 PM Monday...

Generally quiet weather is expected through the near term
forecast as high pressure crosses the forecast area. This will
lead to a good radiational cooling night tonight, however
guidance not real sold on it getting cold enough for much frost.
Still, undercut consensus guidance a bit getting some frost
mention across far northwest and NE zones. With limited nature, opting
to continue severe weather potential statement mention on this. Do expect River Valley fog to
develop overnight, especially in the typical foggy spots.

Tuesday will be another pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and
temperatures climb a touch above normal with warm air advection
and some downslope flow enhancement. High clouds will be on the
increase later Tuesday in advance of the next system, but
precipitation is not expected through the Tuesday period.


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
as of 245 PM Monday...

Amplifying upper trof will pivot into the region Wednesday with
associated strong baroclinic zone crossing during the morning
hours. Front will be progressive such that despite increasing
jet dynamics, qpf amounts will average around a quarter of an
inch. Temperatures will start off fairly warm ahead of the
front, followed by a drop during the morning hours. The
meaningful cold air advection will lag the surface front by several hours, such
that boundary layer mixing may allow temperatures to rise a bit
later in the morning before falling in the afternoon as 850 mb
temperatures fall to either side of 0c amid increasing stratocu.

We will need to watch for a S/W trof axis embedded within the
longwave trof crossing Wednesday night. 850 mb flow picks up out
of the northwest behind this and increases to around 40 kts.
This will allow for orographic lift to be enhanced amid steep
low level lapse rates, and with the moisture depth touching the
-8 to -9c, I believe this should be sufficient for upslope
mountain snow showers to develop. I leaned heavily on the NAM
for the boundary layer conditions in this setup which warranted
some low likely pops across the favored northwest slopes.
Accumulations look very very light given lack of moisture within
the dendritic growth zone, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a
dusting on the highest Thursday

May see the upslope snow showers continue Thursday morning with
stratocu lingering much of the day elsewhere as the low level
thermal trof remains over the area. Temperatures will remain
chilly for this time of year, averaging about 10 to 12 degrees
below normal.

Thermal trof finally gets pinched off Thursday night with
gradual low level warm air advection allowing clearing from southwest to
northeast. I expect some frost to develop which could result in
another round of advisories.

High pressure will build in Thursday night.


Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 245 PM Monday...

Upper trof shifts east on Friday with moderating temperatures.
This trend continues into Saturday as upper level ridging builds
into the region. Height falls across the plains will aid in
cyclogenesis Sunday as southwest flow becomes established. A
disturbance in the northern Gulf will track toward the region
late Sunday into Monday as deep moisture advection allows for
showers to overspread into the area and lingering into Monday.


Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 120 PM Monday...

VFR conditions expected today, with some wind gusts of 10-20kts
out of the west to northwest. Calm winds overnight should allow
River Valley fog to form in many of the typical spots. Some
uncertainty on just how dense this will get at terminals with
dry ground and air in place. Did include IFR at pkb, crw and
ekn, being the most likely spots to get it. Any fog will
dissipate Tuesday early to mid morning with VFR for the
remainder of the period. Winds will shift to southeasterly
late tonight into Tuesday which could also impact fog.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing and density fog tonight could vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1hrly 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h

After 18z Tuesday...
IFR conditions are possible in visibility and low stratus
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front and scattered
showers move across the area. Post frontal fog and/or stratus
could also lead to IFR Wednesday night into Thursday.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...



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