Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 212336
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
A cold front was positioned across southern Missouri this
afternoon, roughly from Branson to Salem (2pm). Readings in the
60s were observed from Branson to West Plains, while low to mid
50s existed north of the front. Further north toward Pittsburg up
into central Missouri, temps had cooled into the 40s.
Showers and even a few rumbles of thunder occurred today, which
had decreased in areal coverage. Re-development is expected this
evening through the overnight hours for areas along and north of
the front. Locations south of Interstate 44 could see a decent
soaking tonight, with amounts up to an inch and a half possible.
South central Missouri, or areas near West Plains, Eminence, and
Alton could receive the highest amounts of rain tonight. There is
also a limited risk for flooding of low water crossings and low
lying roads in this same area.
Plenty of cloud cover and drizzle will be present on Friday with
temperatures struggling to warm out of the 40s. All precipitation
will exit the region by Friday night, giving way to dry and cool
conditions over the weekend. Sunshine should break out on
Saturday, and persist into Sunday as well. Look for highs in the
50s on Sunday.
Long term...(monday through thursday)
Fast zonal flow aloft will be the pattern for Thanksgiving week. A
weak disturbance will approach on Tuesday, bringing a quick shot
of rainfall. We're not confident that everyone will receive
measurable rain on Tuesday, and areas that do will only receive a
quarter inch of less.
By Thanksgiving day and beyond, models are indicating a deep long
wave trough to evolve across the western conus, with strong
ridging to the southeast. Southwest flow will pump unseasonably
high amounts of moisture back into the Ozarks, creating warm
temperatures and stormy weather.
We will need to continue to monitor model trends regarding this
storm system, as it's similar to other cold season events we've
had in the past that can create widespread excessive rainfall and
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 532 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
Conditions should be fairly persistent through the forecast period
as low level moisture remains abundant in the presence of a