Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019
Short term...(today and tonight)
Split flow was ongoing across the conus this morning, keeping Gulf
moisture at Bay. A cool and dry airmass was overhead, which will
persist through the next several days.
For today, look for highs in the 40s under mostly clear skies and
southerly breezes. Tonight will be on the chilly side with lows in
the middle 20s. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday with
highs in the 40s.
No precipitation is expected through Thursday.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
Fast zonal flow is expected to evolve over the weekend and into
next week. The expected movement of any storm system through the
next few days will hamper preciptiation chances. This will also
promote a series of cold fronts keeping the forecast somewhat
A period of upper ridging will briefly occur through the upcoming
weekend, which will make for decent weather. Highs in the 50s can
be expected both Saturday and Sunday afternoons with no
A long wave trough shifts through Sunday night into Monday. Will
keep pops low during this storm passage given the dry airmass
thats expected to be in place.
Overall it appears to be a quiet 7 day forecast period coming up.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 520 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019
VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight.
Southerly winds will increase and become gusty today as the
pressure gradient tightens across the region behind high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west.
A weak front will move through the area late this evening into
tonight. Winds will switch to the northwest behind the front,
remaining on the light side. A dry air mass will be in place
across the area so no precipitation is expected with the frontal
passage, just an increase in high level clouds.