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fxus63 ksgf 200531 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1131 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 245 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

It a sunny and mild afternoon across southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks as a surface ridge drifts across the region. Along
with the light winds, temperatures have made it into the 60s area-

The surface ridge will push east of the area tonight, with southerly
winds becoming more established. Under clear skies, lows will range
from the middle 30s over the Eastern Ozarks to the middle 40s in
southeast Kansas and western Missouri.

Upper ridging holds on across the area Wednesday as a long wave
trough remains over the western conus. Models indicate a shortwave
ejecting northeast out across the plains Wednesday afternoon, along
with a tightening pressure gradient. South to southwest winds will
increase mid to late morning with gusts to around 35 mph expected.
In addition, lift will begin to increase ahead of the approaching
wave resulting in an increase in clouds and perhaps some showers
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri by late afternoon.
It will be another mid days with highs well into the 60s area-
wide, and 70 not out of the question over the western areas.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 245 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

As the shortwave continues to lift northeast Wednesday night, a
surface low deepens over Kansas and pushes into eastern Nebraska
with a trailing cold front. Lift ahead of the front will result in
widespread showers across the region. There is some limited
instability so will continue to include the potential for
isolated thunder as well. Rain chances will continue Thursday as
the cold front moves through the region. Will likely see some
falling temperatures across central Missouri, with highs being
reached early in the day. Thursday night the front slows its
southward trek as a surface low develops and begins to ride north.
Ample Gulf moisture will be pulled northward, with more rain
expected across the area, the higher chances and greater amounts
will be near the front over southern Missouri. Depending on how
much colder air gets drawn into the area, there could be some
wintry precipitation mix in over portions of the area late
Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time anything looks
to be light and not expecting any impacts. A cool day is expected
Friday with the precipitation continuing, mainly in the form of
rain as high are expected to be in the low to mid 40s. Highest
probabilities will be found near and along the Arkansas border.
The system clears out Friday night, with Saturday through Monday
being dry along with a warming trend. Highest rainfall totals from
Wednesday through Friday range from around one quarter of an inch
over central Missouri, to upwards of 1.50 to 2.00 inches over
south central Missouri. If this indeed pans out will have to watch
for the potential for some flooding across southern Missouri.

Another system looks to bring rain chances back to the region from
Monday night into Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Low level wind shear expected tonight at kjln as wind fields increase. Those
elevated winds will mix to the surface at all sites on Wednesday,
making for gusty conditions. Showers are expected toward the end
of the taf period, but significantly lowered conditions will wait
until after this taf period to move in.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

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