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FXUS63 KSGF 060555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1155 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Conditions have been very favorable today as temperatures have
climbed into the upper 50s to mid 60s under partly sunny skies,
which is about 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Southerly winds will keep more mild air in the area until a cold
front and associated upper level shortwave approaches from the 
west later this evening and overnight.

By this evening, light rain showers will begin to move into the
area and continue overnight as the upper shortwave progresses
through Arkansas. Because the core of this system will pass just
to our south, moisture return and instability will be hampered.
Thus, not expecting any thunder nor much in the way of rainfall.
Portions of south-central Missouri may see a few tenths of an inch
of rain, while the rest of the CWA sees only a few hundredths to
less than a quarter of an inch. 

Rain will then push east of the region by mid Friday morning,
leaving a cooler air mass and breezy northerly winds in its wake.
Near-seasonal high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will be
felt across most of the area, although portions of far south-
central Missouri may touch the low 50s. Friday night lows will be
in the upper 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) 
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Moderating temperatures quickly return for Saturday and Sunday as
weak height rises aloft in a zonal flow regime bring highs back
into the 50s. Overall, it will be a dry and pleasant weekend
besides some very low end rain chances Sunday night ahead of an
approaching upper-level long wave trough approaching from the

The upper-level trough will propagate across the Central CONUS
throughout Monday into Tuesday with a developing surface low
pressure system on its front end progged to push northeast across
the upper Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Model consensus
continues to develop this system farther east relative to previous
runs, which will likely limit moisture availability for southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks behind an attendant cold front. As
such, precipitation with this system looks limited, so not
expecting much in terms of QPF at the moment. Some low end chances
for a very brief changeover to snow behind the cold front on
Monday night into early Tuesday morning, but again the limited
moisture should keep chances for frozen precipitation to a

The main focus for next week is still on the colder weather
sliding in behind the cold front on Tuesday into Thursday. Low
temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s each morning during
this stretch combined with northerly winds may push wind chills
into the teens.

Model guidance hints at another system potentially moving into 
the area late next week, however there is a large spread in the
guidance in terms of moisture return and the system's location, 
so confidence is quite low with regards to precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

A front is currently moving through the area late this evening and
will continue to push south through the rest of the area
overnight. Sprinkles will be possible across the entire area but
the better measurable rain chances will generally be along and
south of the Interstate 44 corridor. Dry air remains in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, lift will be strong enough to over come
the dry air, but rainfall amounts will not be overly heavy with a
few hundredths of an inch to one quarter of an inch possible
across southern Missouri. MVFR conditions will be possible within
the heavier showers.

MVFR ceilings may also occur behind the front Friday morning. 

Winds will switch to the north behind the front and become gusty
Friday morning.  



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