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fxus63 ksgf 211943 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

A vertically stacked low over the upper Midwest will shift
northeast with sfc high pressure moving from West Texas to la by
late Tuesday. Gusty daytime winds will continue, gradually
backing to the west Tuesday and the southwest Wednesday. A warming
trend is expected as a result with increase warm air advection.
Dry weather is expected through the day on Wednesday.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Wednesday night-thursday: there is fairly good agreement with
guidance early in this period with another approaching shortwave
moving southeast into the upper plains and Midwest
Wednesday/Wednesday night. This will push a weak sfc cold front
through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Some light
rain is expected to develop near/along the front during this time.

Friday-weekend-monday: big differences still exist between the Ops
GFS and European model (ecmwf). The GFS moves the upper trough through quickly late
in the week with an upper ridge building in for the weekend. The
European model (ecmwf) and gdps cutoff the southwestern extent of the upper trough
back over the Southern Plains then shift that low to the northeast
over the early part of the weekend. Guidance on both ends of the
spectrum have been locked in and consistent. For now we have a
some small rain chances over the weekend as a compromise.
Eventually guidance should start moving one way or the other to
solidify the forecast. Temperatures will look to generally be
below normal for the period.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1116 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: VFR to start with some potential for some VFR
ceilings toward 21z-24z with the clouds moving southeast into the
region around a large area of low pressure. Gusty west winds will
veer to the northwest and diminish somewhat after 01z.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

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