Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 132335
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019
Short term...(this evening through monday)
Fair weather was observed over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks today as mean westerlies pumped in a dry
Continental airmass overhead. South to southwest breezes will
continue at the surface tonight, bringing lows into the 40s. Skies
will remain mostly clear.
For Monday, a little warmer weather is expected with highs in the
70s. Moisture will start to increase with south winds 10 to 15
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
A cold front will approach the area during the day Tuesday,
potentially triggering some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
The areal coverage of rain will likely be relatively low, so not
all locations will receive measurable precipitation on Tuesday.
Temperatures will definitely be impacted by falling into the 30s
early Wednesday morning.
Zonal flow aloft will follow with mainly dry weather expected from
Wednesday through Friday. South winds at the surface will
eventually return bringing back some moisture and warmth heading
into the weekend. A nice warmup will take place with highs in the
70s on an afternoon basis from Friday through Sunday. The increase
in moisture will also bring a risk for showers and thunderstorms,
particularly later in the weekend as a front pushes a little
closer to the Ozarks.
Eventually, widespread rainfall will develop across the region as
a long wave trough of low pressure slowly moves eastward. If
the system moves even slower, which has been the model trend, we
could be setting the stage for some flooding. Will give it a few
more model runs before we decide to enter this into the severe weather potential statement.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 633 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019
VFR conditions will continue through Monday. Surface winds will
remain light and variable tonight before increasing out of the
southeast into the 5-11 knot range on Monday.