Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 141940
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
240 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
Ideal weather for outdoor activities were observed today over
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Southerly
breezes were pumping in warmer air along with some Gulf moisture.
That will set the stage for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Not all locations will experience measurable precipitation on
Tuesday, however, an increase in areal coverage is expected by
Tuesday evening and night over the Eastern Ozarks.
Rain will exit the region Tuesday night. No severe storms are
expected at this time.
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
A shot of cool air will spread across the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night, as temperatures only warm into the 50s during the
afternoon. Wednesday night lows will fall in the 30s, however, a
freeze is not expected.
No rain is expected from Wednesday through Friday. Meanwhile, a
warming trend will occur with highs back in the 60s on Thursday
and 70s on Friday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
translate across the nations midsection during this time frame,
creating deep southwest flow and strong moisture return by
Saturday will be our next shot at some precipitation on the
leading edge of the deeper moisture return. A long wave trough of
low pressure will then approach from the west, creating more
widespread showers and thunderstorms by Sunday or next Monday.
Finally, it's noted that both the GFS and ecwmf have changed it's
upper air structure next weekend to more of a positive pna
pattern. This creates a faster storm passage on Sunday into Monday,
likely limiting quantitative precipitation forecast amounts. We will continue watching trends for
next weekend's potential active weather.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of southwest Missouri will experience
fair weather VFR conditions today and through most of tonight.
Southerly breezes will persist, while a low level jet tonight
could create some low level wind shear.
A cold front will approach the region from the west tomorrow,
potentially triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather is not expected, however, low ceilings and reduced
visibilities will all be possible tomorrow.