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fxus63 ksgf 211056 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

..updated for 12z aviation discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 307 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Ongoing convection across the Eastern Ozarks will continue to trek
east with the strong to severe storms exiting the area in the
next hour or so, with lingering showers lasting into the early
morning hours. Clearing already working its way from west to east
with back edge moving through western Missouri and expected to
continue moving eastward rather quickly through the area. A band
of mid level clouds look to rotate southward into central Missouri
around midday, otherwise the remainder of the area looks sunny to
partly cloudy. A rather tight pressure gradient develops in the
wake of the low, so a breezy day is in store for the region with
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and occasional gusts as high as 35
mph. Some slightly cooler temperatures are also expected with
highs in the lower 60s for the most part, and perhaps near 70 over
the far southeast where the cooler air will be last to arrive.

Clear and cooler conditions are expected tonight, with lows around
40 and given wester to northwest winds around 10 mph, wind chills
will be just in the lower to middle 30s by morning.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 307 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Quiet and cool weather is expected on Tuesday as upper level flow
remains northwesterly. This flow then transitions to more zonal
on Wednesday, with a slight bump up in temperatures, but remaining
quiet. Next shortwave trough then begins to dig across the
western conus later Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to our
next chances for rain from late Wednesday night into early
Friday. Given clouds and showers and trough overhead, temperatures
will be on the cool side with highs only in the 50s and lows in
the 30s. With precipitation lingering Thursday night will have to
watch the potential for some flakes of snow to mix in, although if
they do not expecting anything impactful. Models diverge
significantly for the weekend time frame as European model (ecmwf) lifts an upper
level wave towards the area, while GFS dosn't show this feature,
so quite a bit of uncertainty in this time frame. For now
consensus is for lower end rain probabilities.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 555 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

A cold front will push through the taf sites early this morning
with winds becoming westerly in its wake. A small area of MVFR
ceilings may persist for a few hours this morning, but clearing
skies and VFR conditions are then expected from mid morning on.
A strong pressure gradient will develop behind the front with
westerly winds of 15 to 25 knots with some gusts as high as 35
knots throughout the day today. These winds will diminish this


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

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