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FXUS63 KSGF 180943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
343 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

An upper level trough is moving off to the east early this 
morning. This is leaving the area in a northwest upper level flow 
pattern. An upstream weak upper level disturbance is moving 
through the Central Plains. An area of light showers have develop 
across Nebraska ahead of this feature. The upper level disturbance
will continue to move southeast and through the area this 
afternoon and evening. Some light showers or sprinkles will be 
possible, especially across central Missouri. Amounts will be on 
the light side. 

Highs will top out in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. The 
warmest readings will be across southeastern Kansas and far 
southwestern Missouri where more sunshine will occur. Lows tonight
will fall into the middle to upper 30s. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

An upper level ridge will move east into the Plains on Tuesday
then over the region on Wednesday. A warm front will move north
across the area on Tuesday as the ridge approaches from the
west. There could be a few sprinkles that occur with the warm
frontal passage, but not expecting much rainfall with it. 

Highs will warm into the lower to middle 60s Tuesday afternoon.
Highs on Wednesday will warm into the middle to upper 60s on

An upper level low will dig south into the southwestern U.S. on
Wednesday then move east late this week into the weekend. Ahead of
the upper level low, an upper level short wave trough will spread
north across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will
send a front into the area and it will be the focus for showers 
and maybe a few thunderstorms. Instability will be limited enough 
that no severe weather is expected. 

The front will then stall across the area, and energy from the
upper level low will interact with the front and will keep showers
across the area, especially southern Missouri closer to the 
front, Thursday night into at least Friday. There could be some 
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the area if the rounds 
of rain track repeatedly across the same locations. 

Friday night into the weekend models do differ on the system,
mainly the timing. Its possible the system moves off to the east
faster bring drier air into the area by Friday night, but there
there is also the potential for the a slower track keeping
precipitation chances into the area into Saturday. Colder air will
advect into the area as the trough moves through Friday night 
into Saturday. Its possible that the rain transitions to a light 
wintry mix before it ends Saturday morning, but is dependent on 
the timing of the system. 

The air mass will not be overly cold with highs on Saturday 
expected to warm into the 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 
30s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the 
middle to upper 50s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

VFR flight conditions will persist throughout this TAF period, 
although there will likely remain some high-level clouds, 
especially into mid-day Monday. There could even be some 
scattered light rain showers Monday afternoon, but precipitation 
will have a difficult time reaching the ground with cloud ceilings
forecast above 6 kft.

Surface winds will back from northwest to southwest over the next
6 hours. Meanwhile, winds speeds will increase to 10-15 kts by 
Monday afternoon across the JLN and SGF terminals.



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