Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksgx 091705
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
905 am PST Mon Dec 9 2019
fair and warmer weather is expected this week as high pressure
and weak offshore flow take hold of the region.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Patchy shallow fog is impacting isolated locales this morning,
but the fog is beginning to dissipate with daytime heating. It
sure has created a picturesque morning at the office!
We are entering a tranquil period as the weekend storm system has
departed to the east (rainfall summary headlined on our webpage
weather.Gov/sandiego and on twitter @nwssandiego).
The rest of the week will feature upper level high pressure
dominating, which means dry weather and warmer temperatures,
especially late this work week. Storm systems will be passing US
by to the north with some high clouds reaching US from time to
time, including tomorrow afternoon/evening. Still, socal will get
our fill of sunshine and warmer temps this week, allowing some
green up after the nice rainfall we have seen over the past
..previous discussion (issued at 210 am PST Mon Dec 9 2019)...
Showers continue early this morning along the southern oc and
western San Diego County, along with the High Desert. Showers in
these areas and the San Bernardino Mountains will end by around
sunrise. Partly cloudy skies will turn mostly sunny during the
day. Get ready for some dry and warmer weather this upcoming week.
A weak high pressure ridge will build today and amplify into
Tuesday. Weak offshore flow will help temps rebound as well as
reduce lower clouds. A bunch of high clouds will increase Tuesday,
courtesy of a very weak shortwave trough will put a Dent in the
ridge as it tracks through California Wednesday (bringing rain to
northern california) before passing harmlessly to the east
Thursday. Offshore flow follows Thursday and Friday with localized
breezes in the favored foothill areas during the mornings.
Daytime highs will inch above average Thursday. By Friday high
temps will peak out this week, roughly 5-10 degrees above
average. The jet stream nudges southward again this weekend and
some model solutions add higher humidity into the westerly flow
for light showers in socal. A lot can change between now and the
coming weekend, so we'll wait for more consistency in model
solutions before forecasting another weekend of rain, even if
light. Another notable trend in the guidance is for stronger
offshore flow early next week (16 dec). These details will work
themselves out in time, but for now there is no hazardous weather
forecast this week.
091635z...coasts/valleys...shallow fog in the valleys with local vis
1/4sm or less gradually clearing through 18z. A pocket of low clouds
with ceilings near 700-1000 ft mean sea level and vis 3-5 sm over northern Orange
County and far west inland Empire also clearing through 18z. VFR
conds after 18z with few-scattered clouds 2000-3000 ft mean sea level through this
evening, then clear tonight.
Mountains/deserts...mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis through
no hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.
elevated surf and strong rip currents today as the west-northwest
swell continues to fade. Another large, long period west-northwest
swell is forecast to arrive this weekend, bringing another round of
elevated to high surf and strong rip currents.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.