Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kshv 102053 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
253 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Short term.../tonight through Wednesday night/

Relief from this drenching cold rain is on the way for the Four-
States region, but it's unfortunately going to be a trade off as below
average temperatures are going to follow this soon to be vacated

By this evening, what little rain our area will be seeing should
be limited to the Grant, La Salle and Caldwell parishes. Beyond
that, the remainder of this short term period will be dry.
However, in its wake this system will have cleared out a good
portion of the cloud cover, and shifted the winds from the north.
While high-temperatures on Wednesday will get up into the
mid-50's, overnight low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night
will be at, or below freezing area wide. Thankfully, the winds
won't be too strong to give this cold a true winter bite. Expect
the winds over this short term forecast to only reach sustained
speeds between 5-10 mph, with the stronger winds confined to our
southeastern most areas. /44/

Long term.../Thursday through Tuesday night/

A weak disturbance aloft will be located across the OK/Texas pndl
region of the country to start our Thu with this system expected to
move ESE across the middle Red River valley and into The Heart of
our region by Thu evng. Low level moisture return remains pretty
sparse with this feature but both the European model (ecmwf) and NAM 12z runs
continue to paint a little more in the way of 800 mb moisture across our
eastern third and therefore are trying to spit out some showers in
association with this weak trough axis. Did not stray too far from
this line of thinking that also coincides with the previous

Not seeing much in the way of a frontal passage in association with
this trough by late week but instead, the trough will delay the
return of southerly winds in the low levels until Friday. This will
transpire ahead of a weak frontal passage it appears sometime during
the day Saturday with a progressive westerly pattern with nearly
zonal flow aloft oriented across the Southern Plains. Temperatures
are trick for the weekend as the GFS during this same timeframe is
depicting a returning warm frontal boundary for late Sat into sun so
tried to blend the two differing models concerning weekend
temperatures. This discrepancy remains in the forecast for early
next week between the models despite surprisingly good agreement
concerning the ejection of our next weather maker in the form of a
longwave trough exiting the intermountain west Sunday night and
entering the Great Plains on Monday. While there is a large positive
tilt to this next trough early next week, there should be enough
forcing and moisture return, especially if the GFS solution comes to
fruition with a returning warm frontal boundary, for high end chance
pops beginning Sun night and continuing through Monday before the
precipitation and the effects of the trough exit our region to the
east by Mon night into Tue.



Previous discussion... /issued 1147 am CST Tue Dec 10 2019/


IFR, with brief LIFR conditions possible, to start this taf
period. Rain showers/vcsh will be carried at all sites throughout the
afternoon as the moisture Plum continues to get pushed out by the
upper level trough. Look for gradual improvement in conditions
into MVFR past 10/20z starting at our east/NE sites. These
improvements will be in ceilings, visibility, and wx. VFR can be
expected area wide past 11/07z. /44/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 30 54 34 55 / 0 0 0 10
mlu 30 53 32 54 / 30 0 0 20
deq 24 53 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
txk 27 52 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
eld 27 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 10
tyr 30 55 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
ggg 30 55 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
lfk 33 57 35 59 / 0 0 0 0


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations